\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and the performance increased significantly. The leading position of silicon materials and battery chips of the company is stable, the production capacity expands rapidly, and the new battery technology continues to advance; Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
The profit in 2021 increased by 128% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, with an annual revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%, and realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 128%, deducting non-profit of 8.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 252%. The company's annual report performance is in line with the express data. The company also announced that it plans to distribute a dividend of 9.12 yuan (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares.
The profit of 2022q1 increased significantly by 513% year-on-year: the company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the revenue was 24.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.49%; The company achieved a profit of 5.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 513.01%. The company's first quarter results meet market expectations.
The price of silicon material rose sharply, and the volume and profit increased both: in terms of silicon material business, the price of silicon material rose sharply year-on-year in 2021. The company realized the sales volume of high-purity crystalline silicon of 107700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.30%, and the gross profit margin was 66.69%, a year-on-year increase of 31.99 percentage points; The production cost of silicon material is reduced to less than 40000 yuan / ton. In terms of battery business, the sales volume of battery and components of the company reached 34.93gw, with a year-on-year increase of 57.61%, and the gross profit margin of single crystal battery was 8.28%; The non silicon cost of single crystal cell is reduced to less than 0.18 yuan / W.
The long-term plan promotes the rapid expansion of production capacity: in 2021, the company has built a total production capacity of 180000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon and 45gw of battery chips. According to the follow-up development plan of the company, the production capacity of high-purity crystalline silicon and battery chip is expected to reach 8 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) million tons and 130150gw respectively from 2024 to 2026.
Accelerating the industrialization of new technologies: in 2021, the company added and put into operation a 1GW hjt pilot line. At present, the efficiency of hjt R & D and mass production has been greatly improved, the consumption index of main auxiliary materials and consumables has further decreased, and the research and development of silver slurry substitution has made phased progress. The company simultaneously carried out mass production research and development of TOPCON technology, and took the lead in opening the pilot production of TOPCON based on 210 size. At present, 1GW TOPCON project has been successfully put into operation, and the product mass production conversion efficiency is leading in the industry.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company's annual report, quarterly report and Industry Supply and demand, we adjusted the company's predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 3.81/3.38/3.43 yuan (the original predicted diluted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 was 2.21/2.22 / - yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 9.6/10.8/10.6 times; Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Risk of overcapacity in photovoltaic manufacturing; New technology iteration risk; Photovoltaic industry policy risk; The production expansion progress is not up to expectations; Price fluctuation of feed raw materials; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
