\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 63 Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 3.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.96%. In a single quarter, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.009 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 18.63%, a year-on-year increase of + 37.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 111 million yuan, a month on month increase of – 11.26%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.69%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 78.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.97%. In terms of expense rate, the expense rate during the 21-year period was 15.12%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.71 PCTs; The financial expense ratio of 21q4-22q1 was 2.74% / 2.88% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.57pcts/2.16pcts, mainly due to the fluctuation of foreign exchange rate and the increase of bank loan interest. Overall, in the face of the price game of the industrial chain and the shortage of upstream IGBT supply in 21 years, the company’s performance is still bright. At the same time, the performance of 22q1 is higher than expected and is expected to maintain a high growth trend in the whole year of 22 years.
Q1: the profitability has been improved and will maintain a good trend in the future. In terms of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of 22q1 is higher than the average of last year, mainly due to the price increase in 21q4 China, which is good for profits in Q1. We expect that the gross profit margin of the company’s 22q2-q3 is expected to further increase, mainly due to: (1) the revenue of overseas price increase Q1 has not been fully recognized, and it is expected to start responding in Q2; (2) Under the trend of RMB devaluation, it is positively helpful to the company; (3) The company has signed a long contract on sea freight, but the sea freight has a downward trend. In terms of shipment, Q1 company shipped about 210000 units in 22 years, of which energy storage accounted for 10%, and the proportion continued to increase.
Grid connected inverters are growing steadily and supply chain management is leading the industry. The company’s grid connected inverter achieved an operating revenue of 2.843 billion yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 43.45%. The shipment volume is about 67000 units, the unit price is about 4200 yuan (excluding tax), and the single w net profit is expected to be 0.23 yuan. In terms of supply chain management, the inverter industry was affected by IGBT supply in the whole year of 21. On the whole, the company has made sufficient preparations. In 22 years, the company accelerated the introduction of new overseas chip suppliers and strengthened the import verification of domestic chips to make full preparations for potential supply problems. Looking forward to the whole year, we expect that although the tight supply of 22q4 IGBT can be alleviated, However, the company’s excellent supply chain management ability will continue to ensure the company’s shipping capacity.
There are abundant orders for energy storage, which is expected to grow rapidly. The operating revenue of energy storage inverter 21 was 176 million yuan, accounting for 5.31% of the operating revenue, with a year-on-year increase of + 370.85%. The company’s energy storage business 22q1 continued to grow, with about 54000 units on hand, of which about 20000 units were shipped in the first quarter and 15 Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co.Ltd(000020) 0000 units are expected to be shipped in the whole year. At present, the company has a deep layout of energy storage and household photovoltaic channels, which significantly benefits from the rapid rise of market demand in overseas Europe and other markets.
The new energy power production business has developed steadily. 21. The annual income was 87 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 128%. The company has put into operation 177 distributed photovoltaic power stations in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other provinces, with a total installed capacity of about 177.76mw.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve a revenue of RMB 6.019/88.38/12.626 billion from 2022 to 2024, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 1.093/14.13/2.032 billion respectively, and the PE multiples corresponding to the closing price on the 26th are 38x / 30x / 21x respectively. The company is a leading enterprise in photovoltaic inverter. The energy storage business is expected to become a new growth pole and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Insufficient supply of raw materials; Overseas trade barrier risk
