\u3000\u3 Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) 062 Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) )
Key investment points
The main business income is beautiful and cashed, and multiple factors drag down the performance of profit margin
In terms of business segments, (1) industrial paper bags: the revenue of 21a was 752 million yuan (+ 29.14%), and the gross profit margin was 26.80% (excluding the impact of freight - 2.62pct). The decline in gross profit margin was mainly due to the high price of raw material kraft paper & sea freight during the period and the change of accounting standards; During the period, the sales volume of industrial paper bags was 262 million (+ 38.33%), and the unit price was 2.88 yuan / piece (- 6.64%). After the release of production capacity, the sales volume was beautiful and realized, and the unit price decreased mainly due to the change of customer structure. The number of building materials customers with relatively low unit price increased significantly by 65.67% to 263 million yuan (the gross profit margin of building materials customers was 34.24%, year-on-year -2.65 PCT). (2) Composite plastic packaging: the revenue of 21a is 277 million yuan (+ 93.22%), and the gross profit margin is 37.20% (- 7.19 PCT). The decline of gross profit margin is mainly due to the impact of strategic price adjustment, year-end promotion and raw materials; During the period, the sales volume was 75.36 million linear meters (+ 129.29%), and the corresponding unit price was 3.68 yuan / linear meter (- 15.73%), which was mainly due to the adjustment of order price of key customers. During the year, the revenue of major cheese customers was 237 million yuan (accounting for 21.19%, year-on-year revenue + 67.75%), and the cooperation was stable. (3) Others: during the period, the income from injection molding packaging and other businesses was 71 million yuan (+ 111.36%), and the income from intelligent packaging system was 19 million yuan (+ 31.47%).
During the epidemic period, the factory operated smoothly and cheese customers developed smoothly
(1) smooth production and shipment during the epidemic: after the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai in March, the company's factory timely closed-loop management, and the production, feeding and shipment operate smoothly during the epidemic. Considering that logistics costs and factory & worker expenses are large during the epidemic period, the profit margin may be affected. (2) Smooth development of cheese customers: in the first quarter, the company successfully developed new customers such as Dr. cheese, and the customer structure continued to be optimized; In addition, after the end of the promotional activities of packaging materials from 22q1, the profits of packaging materials will rise month on month. Considering the gradual release of scale effect, we continue to be optimistic about the growth of composite plastic packaging volume. (3) The downstream of industrial paper bags is booming, and the orders are relatively full. We look forward to the profit elasticity after the decline of raw material costs.
Raw materials are suppressed, and profitability has dropped
Profitability: considering the change of accounting standards and the calculation of gross sales difference, the gross sales difference of 21a is 26.68% (- 2.39pct), which is mainly due to the large increase in the price of kraft paper, the raw material of industrial paper bags (accounting for nearly 70% of revenue) and the strategic profit transfer of composite plastic packaging during the period; The gross sales difference of 21q4 was 23.75% (-6.30pct), with a large decline, mainly due to the promotion and profit transfer of composite plastic packaging at the end of the year. In terms of expense rate, the 21a management and R & D expense rate is 10.45% (-0.52pct), and the financial expense rate is 1.31% (-0.47%), which is well controlled. Corresponding to 21a net interest rate of 12.92% (-1.43pct) and 21q4 net interest rate of 8.88% (-5.49pct). Cash flow: 21a's operating cash flow was 22 million yuan (- 87 million yuan) and 21q4's operating cash flow was - 39 million yuan (- 68 million yuan), mainly due to the increase in sales settled by bills and the increase in raw material preparation.
Capacity expansion contributed to growth momentum and expected bottom recovery in profits
In terms of industrial paper bags, the design capacity at the end of the year is expected to be + 15 ~ + 20% year-on-year. Considering the high downstream boom and the scarcity of production capacity in China, we are optimistic about the future scale growth of the business; In addition, the medium-term supply of pulp is released, and the price of kraft paper is expected to fall, looking forward to the profit elasticity after the decline of raw materials. In terms of composite plastic packaging, after the new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year 21, the total production capacity has doubled compared with that at the end of the year 20. It is expected that the volume will be increased smoothly in 22 years. Considering the smooth development of new customers, the steady cooperation with old customers and the release of scale effect, we continue to be optimistic about the rapid growth of the scale and volume of composite plastic packaging business.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company is a small packaging giant with scarce industrial paper bag production capacity and high-speed and large-scale cheese stick business. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 1.363/18.15/2.313 billion yuan in 22-24 years, an increase of 21.64% / 33.18% / 27.48% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 / 216 / 264 million yuan, an increase of 24.43% / 19.78% / 22.25% at the same time, and the corresponding PE was 23.62x/19.72x/16.13x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
