\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Key elements of the report:
On April 27, the company released the first quarter report of 2022. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 32.296 billion yuan (YoY + 18.43%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 17.245 billion yuan (YoY + 23.58%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 17.243 billion yuan (YoY + 23.43%). Both revenue and profit growth met expectations.
Key investment points:
The proportion of Maotai liquor revenue rebounded, and the profit margin increased year-on-year. During the reporting period, the revenue of Maotai liquor and series liquor achieved high growth. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and the revenue of series liquor was 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. The introduction of new products helped increase revenue. The new “treasures” and the year of the Tiger Chinese Zodiac liquor listed at the end of last year and the beginning of this year promoted the price of Maotai liquor. In terms of series liquor, a series of liquor single product “Maotai 1935” was launched in January this year, and the retail guide price fell to the price band of 1000 yuan, laying the foundation for the high growth of series liquor in the first quarter. Maotai liquor and series liquor accounted for 89.4% and 10.6% of the revenue respectively. Affected by the recovery of Maotai liquor revenue and the increase of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of 22q1 company increased by 0.69 PCT year-on-year. During the first quarter, the company’s expense rate decreased by 0.88 PCT, of which the sales expense rate and financial expense rate decreased by 0.44 and 0.54 PCT respectively year-on-year, which promoted the net interest rate to 55.59% (YoY + 1.42pcts).
The channel reform has made brilliant achievements, and the direct sales revenue has reached a new high. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s direct / wholesale agency revenue was 10.89 billion yuan and 21.4 billion yuan respectively, with a significant year-on-year increase of 127.9%, accounting for 33.7% (YoY + 16.2pcts). Since the scale of the company’s direct sales, the proportion of direct sales revenue has increased significantly, and the direct sales revenue exceeded 10 billion in a single quarter, realizing the brilliant achievement of doubling the growth. In the first quarter, there were three dealers in Maotai China, all of which were Maotai flavor liquor dealers. During the reporting period, the company’s sales revenue was 31.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and the advance collection index (contract liabilities + other current liabilities) was 9.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.0%. The layout of direct sales is still making continuous efforts. Since the trial operation of the official marketing digital app “I Maotai” was launched on March 31, the total number of registered users has exceeded 10 million, and more than 131 million people have participated in subscription. The expansion of online self-supporting channels is expected to continue to contribute to the high growth of direct sales revenue in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: it is a high probability event for the company to achieve the revenue growth target of 15% in 22 years, and the extremely deep moat is a strong support for the certainty of the company’s growth. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 61.649/71.579/82.624 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 16% / 15%, corresponding to EPS of 49.08/56.98/65.77 yuan / share. On April 26, the share price corresponding to PE was 35 / 30 / 26 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk factors: macroeconomic downside risk, the risk that the promotion of direct selling is less than expected, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of food safety.
