\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event:
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) annual report for 2021 and quarterly report for the first quarter of 2022 have been released.
In terms of performance, in 2021, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) achieved an operating revenue of 45.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.06%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%. In the first quarter of 2022, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) achieved an operating revenue of 11.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.88%.
In terms of operation, in 2021, Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) annual business volume reached 16.543 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 30.79%, and single ticket revenue was 2.27 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.35%. In the first quarter of 2022, the business volume completed 3.713 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 18.05%; The single ticket income was 2.61 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.88% and a month on month increase of 6.17%.
Key investment points:
The non closing of the Spring Festival affects the cost, and the Q1 performance is slightly lower than expected
In 2022q1, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 870 million yuan ( Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) international and Yuantong Airlines totaling 81 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 134.88%, and the performance exceeded expectations; The operating cash flow was 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 361.60%, and the cash flow was significantly repaired. In terms of express business, the unit price of 2Ts increased steadily by 1.305 billion yuan, accounting for 1.89% of the total number of tickets repaired in the market, with a year-on-year increase of 202105 billion yuan, accounting for 1.89% of the total number of tickets repaired in the market. Under the background of the sharp rise of oil price in 2022q1 and the disturbance of epidemic control, Yuantong still handed over a brilliant answer sheet. The single ticket revenue reached 2.61 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.88% and a month on month increase of 6.17%. The net profit of non return parent deducted from single ticket of express business reached 0.2 yuan. The profitability increased rapidly, the profits continued to release, and the stability of the pattern was verified.
Short-term disturbance demand of the epidemic,
In March 2022, the national express industry completed a business volume of 8.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.17%; The single ticket income was 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06% and a month on month increase of 0.79%. Yuantong completed business volume of 1.417 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 5.06%; The single ticket income was 2.48 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.11% and a month on month decrease of 6.77%. After excluding the impact of rookie wrapping business, the single ticket income was 2.40 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.59%. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic and oil prices, Yuantong still achieved a net profit of 276 million yuan in March, an increase of 237.75% year-on-year, showing the resilience of enterprise operation, strong performance flexibility and excellent anti inflation ability.
In order to further stimulate the sustainable development of the enterprise, Yuantong launched the second equity incentive. The assessment objectives of the first, second and third exercise periods include that the distribution of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 shall not be less than 3 billion yuan, 3.8 billion yuan and 4.6 billion yuan; Or based on the business volume in 2021, the growth rate of business volume in 2022, 2023 and 2024 shall not be lower than the average growth rate of the industry. High standard equity incentive fully demonstrates Yuantong’s confidence in performance growth.
Signs of reversal of the epidemic began to appear, and then shenyuantong was rated as “buy”
The epidemic only affects the rhythm of the release of express demand, and does not change the medium and long-term trend of the industry pattern to be better and the volume and price rise together. Since 2021q4, the e-commerce express industry has switched to a new stage of high-quality development with high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. Yuantong has also entered a dividend period of simultaneous rise in volume and price and rapid release of performance. Since March, the containment of the epidemic in core cities has had a short-term impact on the business volume of the industry and the company, and the performance of Yuantong’s share price has also been adjusted. However, from the high-quality development trend of the whole year, the profit elasticity of price contribution is much greater than the impact of business volume change. As Shanghai announced that the social aspects of some regions were cleared and the inflection point of the epidemic began to appear, the industry and enterprises are expected to benefit from the rapid rebound in demand after the closure. Under the support of continuous improvement in the pattern of investment and cash flow, enterprises are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the profitability of the industry.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the announcement of the company. It is estimated that the operating revenue of 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 0222024 will be 54.407 billion yuan, 61.818 billion yuan and 70.023 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.649 billion yuan, 4.510 billion yuan and 5.152 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE from 20222024 will be 14.44, 11.68 and 10.23 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
