\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.103 billion yuan,
On the revenue side, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 45.155 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 29.36%. The annual express business volume was 16.543 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30.79%, and the market share increased steadily to 15.28%.
On the cost side, the cost of a number of core single tickets of the company decreased steadily, the transportation cost of a single ticket was 0.50 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01 yuan, and the number of tickets loaded by a single car increased by more than 20% year-on-year; The operating cost of the single ticket center was 0.30 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01 yuan, and the per capita efficiency increased by nearly 12% year-on-year.
On the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.103 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 was 1.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 201.8%; In terms of single ticket profit, referring to the proportion structure of segment profit in the 21st Annual Report and excluding the input tax plus deduction, we calculate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 express business is about 0.15 yuan.
In terms of cash flow, thanks to the high growth of business volume in 21 years and the slowdown of price war since the third quarter of last year, the operating cash flow of the company in 2021 was 4.068 billion yuan, an increase of 577 million yuan year-on-year.
The net profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 increased by 134.9% year-on-year, and the profitability was significantly repaired
Under the disturbance of the 22q1 epidemic, the number of express orders of the company increased by 18.1% year-on-year to 3.713 billion, realizing an operating revenue of 11.828 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company still increased by 134.9% to 870 million yuan year-on-year, and the net profit deducting non attributable to the parent company increased by 141.88% to 821 million yuan year-on-year. We calculated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the 22q1 express business was about 0.2 yuan, which was further improved compared with 21q4, and the profitability was significantly repaired. In addition, the company’s cash flow increased significantly. 22q1 achieved an operating cash flow of 980 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 361.6%.
The profit of express business rebounded steadily, and the logic of repairing the epidemic disturbance remained unchanged
On the price side, the unit price of the company’s March ticket was 2.48 yuan, which decreased by 0.18 yuan month on month due to the influence of the base and off-season cargo weight structure, and still increased by 0.15 yuan year-on-year under comparable caliber. Under the guidance of supervision, competition continued to improve, and the price of franchised e-commerce parts continued to increase month on month from January to March. We judged that the temporary cost increment such as oil price and epidemic prevention could be better transmitted to the front end, and followed up with the repair of price depressions such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
At the single volume end, under the disturbance of the single volume epidemic in March, the company increased from + 5.1% year-on-year to 1.417 billion pieces, accounting for 16.6% of the market, with a chain ratio of + 2.6pts, year-on-year + 1.3pts, and the total single volume of 22q1 increased by + 18.1% year-on-year. From the demand side, receiving side and delivery side, the epidemic mainly affects the timeliness of performance. After the improvement of control, the single volume of the industry may recover significantly, and the leader still has excessive growth.
The profit of freight forwarding and aviation business has declined under the high base
In terms of freight forwarding business, the growth of business volume led to the year-on-year increase of freight forwarding revenue of the company by 21.6% to 4.406 billion yuan in 2021, but the gross profit margin decreased by 3.3pts to 12.9% year-on-year due to factors such as freight rate. In terms of aviation business, the growth of business volume led to a year-on-year increase of 37.0% to RMB 1.536 billion in 2021, but the gross profit margin decreased by 0.9pts to 22.9% year-on-year due to factors such as oil price. In the follow-up short-term, we will pay attention to the comprehensive impact of the epidemic situation, such as transportation demand, air freight rate, fuel price and the introduction rhythm of aircraft fleet; Cross border leaders with key nodes and trunk resources in the medium and long term still have comparative advantages.
Issue the draft of phase II equity incentive, and the assessment objective is strong incentive
The company issued the draft of the second phase of stock option incentive plan at the same time. In addition to the annual growth rate of business volume not lower than the industry average from 2022 to 2024, the assessment objective also (or) introduced the core profit index: 1) the net profit deducted from non parent company in 22 years is not less than 3 billion yuan; 2) The net profit deducted from non parent company in 23 years shall not be less than 3.8 billion yuan; 3) The net profit deducted from non parent company in 24 years shall not be less than 4.6 billion yuan. From 2022 to 2024, the assessment target CAGR of deducting non parent net profit is as high as 30.6%, which is expected to form a strong incentive for the development of the company.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering that under the continuous strengthening of policy supervision, the competition of e-commerce express delivery tends to be orderly, and the leader will be over repaired. Superimposed with the empowerment of phase II equity incentive, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 6 Zhejiang Xianju Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002332) 0222024 to be 3.255 billion yuan, 4.052 billion yuan and 4.923 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 54.8%, + 24.5% and + 21.5% respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: vicious competition and loose control; Repeated disturbance of epidemic situation; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
