\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 196 Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) )
Key investment points
Event: on April 26, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 10.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 463 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.41%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 801 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.73%.
The new products have entered a large-scale period, and the endogenous high growth continues. 22q1’s return to the parent company fluctuated greatly, resulting in a loss of 338 million yuan on investment in biontech shares, which lowered the overall profit level; The revenue and deduction of non returnees maintained high growth, and the new / secondary products such as fubitai (mRNA covid-19 vaccine), hanttrazumab (trastuzumab for injection), Sukexin (avatropopa maleate tablets) and heparin series preparations continued to increase in volume, contributing considerable cash flow, and the company’s endogenous high growth continued to be expected.
The impact of the epidemic reduced the gross profit margin / sales rate, and the R & D expenses increased by 26% year-on-year. The gross profit margin of 22q1 was 43.55% (-8.99pp). The proportion of epidemic resistant varieties with low gross profit increased, and the admission of some high gross profit varieties was blocked, thus lowering the overall gross profit level. The sales cost of 22q1 is 2.067 billion yuan (- 3.40%), and the sales rate is 19.91% (- 6.65pp). It is expected to be related to the centralized procurement of epidemic resistant varieties and the reduction of the promotion of some high margin varieties. The management fee was 786 million yuan (+ 16.60%), and the management rate was 7.57% (-0.80pp), which remained stable. The R & D cost is 805 million yuan (+ 25.67%), and the R & D rate is 7.76% (- 0.20pp). Many R & D projects are progressing smoothly. The financial cost is 107 million yuan (- 16.87%), and the financial rate is 1.03% (-0.57pp).
The R & D pipeline has entered the harvest period and achieved remarkable results in innovation and transformation. Since 2020, the proportion of new products of the company has been increasing, and the R & D projects have been promoted smoothly, gradually entering the harvest period. 1) Fuhong Hanlin: the four monoclonal antibodies are in a large-scale period, among which hanlikang and hanquyou occupy a dominant position in the market. Handayuan further developed the overseas market in February, the first indication of innovative drug PD1 msi-h22q1 was approved, and a number of combination therapies made positive progress in April; 2) Fosun Kate: the second car-t product fkc889 was approved clinically in March; 3) Fubitai: in 22q1, 3.8 million dose orders were added in Hong Kong. The orders from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are highly sustainable, and phase II clinical trials are being carried out in the mainland; 4) Gland: Indian high generic pharmaceutical enterprises have entered a period of rapid development, maintaining a high growth rate of 20-30%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the company has entered a large-scale period of many biological similar drugs, superimposing the new increment contributed by fubitai and cart, we expect the operating revenue to be 44.5 billion yuan, 50.6 billion yuan and 59.9 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 14.17%, 13.70% and 18.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.8 billion yuan, 7.4 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.87%, 27.02% and 24.12%. The company is one of the leading enterprises of innovative drugs in China. Innovative drugs have entered the centralized harvest period, the main business structure has improved and returned to growth, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the extension M & A fails to meet expectations; Risk of failure in new drug research and development; Risk that the decrease and scope of chemical generic drug procurement exceed expectations
