\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 233 Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) )
Event: Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the operating revenue in 2021 was 45.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.103 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.06%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.17%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was RMB 11.828 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 134.88%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 821 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 141.88%.
In 2021, the vicious price war in the industry stopped, the company’s digital capacity-building and strategic layout released results, and the inflection point of development was confirmed. In 2021, the express business volume of the company reached 16.543 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 30.8%, and the market share reached 15.3%, steadily increasing. (1) On the revenue side, the revenue of single ticket express delivery in 2021 was 2.26 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.62%. The price experienced stabilization and rise throughout the year. At the same time, the company seized the market with service quality and promoted the optimization of customer structure. The revenue of 21q4 single ticket express delivery was + 10.8% year-on-year. (2) On the cost side, we will play the role of digital capacity-building and continue to reduce costs in 2021: the transportation cost of a single ticket is 0.5 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 1.3% (the number of tickets loaded per vehicle has increased by more than 20% year-on-year, hedging the impact of rising oil prices and the cancellation of preferential tax policies); The operating cost of the single ticket center was 0.3 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.6% (the per capita efficiency increased by nearly 12% year-on-year); The transfer fee of single ticket outlets was 0.15 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.68%, mainly due to the adjustment of settlement policies; Single ticket delivery service expenditure and single ticket cost were basically the same year-on-year. (3) On the profit side, the net profit deducted from single ticket in 2021 was 0.12 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.82%, of which the net profit deducted from single ticket in Q4 / express delivery was 0.24/0.15 yuan (+ 118%) respectively. Q4 cashed in the high profit elasticity caused by the rise of express delivery price.
2022q1’s performance exceeded expectations. Under the pressure of the epidemic and rising oil prices, relying on customer structure optimization and cost control, it created a leading profit level. In the first quarter of 2022, the express business volume of the company reached 3.713 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of + 18.06%. The net profit of Q1 single ticket / express delivery was 0.23/0.22 yuan respectively, creating an industry-leading profit level. From January to February, it was 0.24/0.21 yuan respectively. The demand from January to February was strong, the price remained at a high level since the peak season, and the profit level was consistent with the peak season of Q4. In March, the net profit of single ticket / express delivery was 0.23/0.21 yuan respectively. Under the influence of the epidemic and oil price, the profit level remained good. We think it is mainly due to: (1) the company timely improved routing and loading rate through digital ability and fine management, so as to effectively hedge the growth of fuel cost. (2) In the first ten days of March, the volume of the company was not affected by the epidemic and maintained a high growth rate. The single ticket profit may continue to increase due to the improvement of customer structure, product structure and cost control. (3) In the middle and late March, the epidemic prevention cost increased, the headquarters cost increased, and the transmission was smooth. Although the capacity utilization rate declined, the impact was hedged through operation and management.
The introduction of equity incentive plan has great reference value for profit target and long-term steady growth can be expected. The company launched the equity incentive plan and plans to grant 12.285 million stock options to the incentive objects, with an exercise price of 16.18 yuan / share. The goal of this incentive assessment is that the net profit deducted from non-profit will not be less than 3 / 38 / 4.6 billion from 2022 to 2024, or the annual growth rate of parts volume will not be lower than the industry average level. We believe that the profit target has great reference significance, which is in line with the company’s long-term strategy of giving priority to profits. The performance has been continuously fulfilled and the long-term steady growth can be expected; The volume growth target is mainly used to deal with systemic risks (such as epidemic situation) and take into account the long-term incentive of employees.
Investment suggestion: the performance of 2022q1 is better than expected, with excellent strategic positioning, digital management and cost control capabilities, highlighting the leading temperament. The industry’s regulatory policies continued, the industry’s leading business strategy changed qualitatively, and the inflection point of industry development was confirmed. We are optimistic about the brand premium brought by the company’s continuous digital capacity-building and customer structure adjustment. The company will continue to usher in the double rise of performance and valuation. From the medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the industry is a growth track in large space, services have become a new competitive factor, and the industry price is expected to rise steadily. At the same time, the industry pattern is gradually clear, and the leader will fully benefit from the share and stable profit increase. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 3.32/4.05/4.77 billion respectively, corresponding to 16 / 13 / 11 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: the demand for e-commerce parts is less than expected, the price competition in the industry is less than expected, and the rigid costs such as oil price, labor and rent are rising.
