\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 831 Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) )
High revenue growth from 2021 to 2022q1, optimistic about the marginal repair of profitability and maintaining the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 14.85 billion yuan (+ 25.97%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.017 billion yuan (- 9.19%), deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 908 million yuan (- 7.78%), the annual revenue increased rapidly, and the profit side was under pressure due to the superposition of negative factors such as the rise of raw material prices. In 2021q4 / 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 4.795/3.351 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.73% / + 26.02%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 350 / 221 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 24.60% / + 32.68%. After deduction, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 324 / 191 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 13.61% / + 26.18%. The net interest rate of 2022q1 is under pressure. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the profit forecast is lowered and the profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.448/19.162448 billion yuan (originally 1.703/21.10 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023), and the corresponding EPS will be 1.56/2.06/2.63 yuan. The current stock price corresponding to PE is 16.5/12.5/9.8 times. The strategic layout of the company’s large packaging has achieved remarkable results. In 2022, the company is optimistic about the marginal repair of the company’s profitability and maintains the “buy” rating.
Revenue split: 3C business grew steadily and new business continued to grow at a high rate
In terms of business, in 2021, the revenue of consumer electronic packaging / wine bag / cigarette bag / environmental protection packaging / cosmetics packaging was 9.4 billion yuan (+ 7.7%) / 1.33 billion yuan (+ 70.6%) / 880 million yuan (+ 59.7%) / 690 million yuan (+ 64.9%) / 340 million yuan (+ 15.5%), respectively. 3C business grew steadily and new business continued to grow at a high rate. The revenue of paper-based packaging products (+ 2.64 billion yuan) / 6pc / min) increased by 2.56 billion yuan, accounting for 2.56% of the total revenue of paper-based packaging products (+ 13.04 billion yuan) / 6pc / min respectively, accounting for 2.56 billion yuan / min), accounting for 2.56% of the total revenue of paper-based packaging products (+ 1.61 billion yuan) / 6pc / min respectively.
Profitability: the effect of fee control is outstanding, and the net interest rate in 2022q1 is under pressure
In 2021, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 21.54% (-5.29pct), with a large decline, mainly due to the rise in the price of raw materials and other effects. The annual sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratio decreased by 0.29/1.00/0.27/0.93pct respectively year-on-year, and the expense ratio decreased by 2.48pct to 13.10% during the period, mainly due to the rapid increase of revenue scale and the large-scale operation of intelligent factories to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Under the comprehensive influence, the net interest rate in 2021 is 6.85% (- 2.65pct), and the net interest rate in 2021q4 / 2022q1 is 7.29% / 6.59% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -3.22pct / + 0.33pct respectively. The profitability of 2022q1 company is under short-term pressure, mainly due to the price fluctuation of raw materials and the price adjustment of some customers.
Risk tip: the growth rate of diversified businesses is declining, the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the exchange rate fluctuates sharply.
