\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 383 Gemdale Corporation(600383) )
The company disclosed in the annual report of 2021 that the annual operating revenue was 98.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%.
Revenue carryover was stable, and profitability declined slightly more than expected. The year-on-year growth rate of the parent company was 18.5%, with a year-on-year growth of negative pc9.5%, and the net profit rate of the project transferred to the parent company decreased to 18.5% year-on-year. We believe that it is mainly due to the sharp decline in the gross profit margin carried forward, and the gross profit margin of the company’s real estate business fell sharply by 13.9pct to 19.7%. In addition, affected by the market downturn in the second half of 2021, real estate companies generally have the pressure of inventory and asset impairment. The company accrued asset and credit impairment losses of 1.45 billion yuan, an increase of 650 million yuan year-on-year. As the policy becomes clearer, we expect the market to recover in the second half of 2022, and the company’s performance in 2022 is expected to be flexible.
In 2021, sales still maintained a double-digit growth rate, and there was sufficient carry forward inventory. In 2021, the company’s cumulative sales amount was 286.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The cumulative sales area was 13.77 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. The annual sales amount of the company ranked 11th in the Kerui list, up 2 places from last year. In the first half of 2021, the company invested actively. In the second half of 2021, with the pressure of new house sales, the investment tended to be cautious. In 2021, the accumulated land storage was 16.36 million square meters, with a total investment of 130.9 billion yuan, but the proportion of equity decreased. By the end of the year, the total land reserve was about 63.98 million square meters, and the equity land reserve was about 29.23 million square meters, meeting the sales needs of 2-3 years.
The financial system is sound and diversified businesses are carried out in an orderly manner. The company received good sales returns and realized a net operating cash inflow of 9.4 billion yuan. By the end of the reporting period, after excluding restricted funds, the cash short debt ratio was 1.40 times. The weighted average cost of debt financing decreased to 4.56%, the asset liability ratio excluding advance receipts was 67.6%, and the net debt ratio was 55.2%, maintaining the “green” of the three red lines. In terms of commercial properties, the average rental rate of shopping centers at the end of the year remained above 90%, and the average rental rate of office buildings at the end of the year reached more than 95%. The company’s agent construction business has been distributed in more than 30 cities and nearly 90 management service projects in China, with a cumulative development and management area of more than 15 million square meters. Jindi property was officially renamed as Jindi smart service. By the end of 2021, the contract management area had exceeded 330 million square meters.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Maintain the buy rating and raise the target price to 20.47 yuan (the original target price was 17.28 yuan). According to the annual report, we lowered the profit expectation of the company’s settlement projects and adjusted the EPS forecast of the company from 2022 to 2024 to 2.38/2.75/2.82 yuan (the original forecast was 2.70/3.07 yuan from 2022 to 2023). The valuation of comparable companies in 2022 is 8.6x, corresponding to the target price of 20.47 yuan.
Risk tips
Sales in the real estate market were significantly lower than expected. Counter cyclical regulation is less than expected. Uncertainty of shareholder reduction.
