\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
The silicon material sector continues to be booming, and the battery business is expected to bring new profit growth points
The company fully benefits from the high prosperity of silicon materials, and the profit of battery business is expected to gradually recover. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.50%, and a deduction of non net profit of 8.486 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 252.35%. In 2022, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 24.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.49%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.194 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 513.01%, deducting non net profit of 5.135 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 544.95%. The company fully benefits from the high prosperity of the silicon material link and the continuous release of the company’s production capacity. In 2021, the company’s silicon material sales reached 107700 tons, with an average selling price of about 155800 yuan / ton, which is the main source of profit of the company. At the same time, the company has steadily expanded the production capacity of battery chips. With the gradual repair of the profitability of battery chips, it is expected to bring new profit growth points to the company. We raised the profit forecast for 2022 / 2023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 16.377 (+ 2.51) / 16.960 (+ 6.50) / 16.696 billion yuan, EPS is 3.64/3.77/3.71 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 10.9/10.6/10.7 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The company’s silicon material production capacity continues to improve, and its product quality and cost advantages continue to strengthen
Silicon material is still the most scarce link in the industry in 2022, and the company is expected to fully benefit from the increase of production capacity. In 2021, the company’s silicon material production capacity will reach 180000 tons. It is expected that the company’s silicon material production capacity will reach 230000 / 350000 tons by the end of 2022 / 2023. The company is expected to continue to maintain the first market share in the silicon material industry. At present, the company’s single crystal material accounts for more than 99%, and more than 90% of n-type material can be achieved. At the same time, the production cost of silicon material has been reduced to less than 40000 yuan / ton. The quality and cost of silicon material products of the company continue to maintain the leading position in the industry.
Actively layout new battery technologies, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and bring profit recovery
The capacity of battery cells continues to improve, and new technologies are expected to open up new profit points for the company. By the end of 2021, the battery capacity has reached 45gw, of which 1GW hjt and 1GW TOPCON production lines have been successfully put into operation. It is expected that the battery capacity will reach 70 / 102gw by the end of 2022 / 2023 respectively. In 2022, the non silicon cost of the company’s battery has been reduced to less than 0.17 yuan / W, and the effective cost of large-scale battery has been reduced to less than 0.15 yuan / W, and the average efficiency has reached 23.53%. The continuous cost reduction and efficiency increase of the company’s battery business will lead to the gradual recovery of profits, thus providing a new growth point.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; The price fluctuation of raw materials is higher than expected; Technological advancement was less than expected.
