\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 2022q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 23.268 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 45.21% / + 15.40% respectively; The net investment income was 4.227 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 22.78% / + 19.74% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.009 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 27.17% / + 46.67% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 2.898 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 30.18% / + 106.89% respectively.
The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 increased significantly on a month on month basis, mainly due to the obvious improvement of expense rate superimposed on the increase of investment income contributed by joint venture on a month on month basis. 1) Independent sales increased year-on-year, and the revenue under the scale effect increased by + 45.21% year-on-year. In 2022q1, GAC motor sold 90400 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 21.80% / – 12.22% respectively; GAC ea’an sold 44900 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 154.85% / + 8.35% respectively. The gross profit margin of Q1 sales was 6.12%, with a month on month ratio of + 0.57pct / – 4.15pct respectively (the core is the decrease of independent sales volume + the rise of raw materials such as batteries). The revenue of self owned brand Q1 single vehicle was 171900 yuan / vehicle, with a month on month ratio of – 1.42% / + 23.18% respectively. 2) The overall cost control is good. Q1 sales / management / R & D expense rates were 4.96% / 4.11% / 1.03% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.25 / -0.16 / -0.59pct and a month on month ratio of -0.85 / -2.07 / -0.10pct respectively. 3) The Q1 sales volume and single vehicle profitability of the Japanese joint venture improved, and the investment income increased significantly month on month. The sales volume of guangben Q1 was 212400 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 16.75% / – 8.25% respectively. The sales volume of Guangfeng was 247000 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 23.44% / + 1.02% respectively. The improvement of joint venture brand sales structure + the contribution of new cars to sales volume. Guangfeng Weisa and fenglanda were listed in January, and the sales volume of Saina Q1 accounted for + 6.37 / + 5.23pct respectively on the same month on month basis; Guangben style was launched in December 2021, and the new car improved the profitability of the joint venture brand. The net profit of guangben & Guangfeng Q1 was 9200 yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 2.10% / + 24.07% respectively. Q1 achieved a total net investment income of 4.227 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 22.78% / + 19.74% respectively, contributing to the high growth of the group’s performance.
The independent “dual brand” differentiation strategy was implemented smoothly, and the model cycle of the joint venture was strong. 1) Gac-e’an has deep technical reserves and perfect research, production and marketing system. The hybrid reform has been carried out smoothly, the electrification self research technology has accumulated deeply, and the intelligent self research cooperation has been driven simultaneously. In terms of products, B to C has achieved remarkable results, and the market recognition has been continuously improved. In 2023, the intelligent pure electric SUV built by Huawei will be mass produced, which will continue to boost the brand and sales. 2) GAC motor adheres to the product strategy of “high appearance value + high technology + PVC leading + differentiated selling points”, and the product structure is continuously optimized under the strategy of “hybrid + intelligence”. 3) The joint venture continued to introduce new models and iterative products, and introduced a number of new cars such as Saina, fenglanda and Weisa in 2022. The product cycle was strong and continued to contribute to high net investment income.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the sales volume & profitability of Japanese joint venture business is better than our expectation, we slightly raised the expectation of net profit attributable to parent company in 20222024 from 91 / 112 / 14.1 billion yuan to 10 / 118 / 15 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.95/1.13/1.43 yuan and PE of 12 / 10 / 8 times in 20222024, maintaining Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
