\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 305 Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: the company released the performance report for the first quarter of 2022, which was higher than our expectation. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 992 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 96.3% and a month on month increase of - 1.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33.7% and a month on month increase of + 47.3%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34.6% and a month on month increase of + 51.2%.
The output of core customers is stable, and the performance is better than the market average. The output of the company's core customer tez Q1 in 2022 was stable, of which the Shanghai plant produced 179000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 125.8% and a month on month increase of - 0.22%. 310000 vehicles were delivered globally, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.7% and a month on month increase of + 0.45%. Affected by the shortage of chip supply and the epidemic situation, the batch number of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in Q1 in 2022 was 1184000, with a month on month ratio of - 9.1%. The company's revenue performance was better than the market average.
The gross profit margin increased month on month, and the decrease of expense rate during the period boosted the performance growth. Affected by the effectiveness of the price adjustment mechanism of downstream customers and the delay in the transmission of raw material prices, the company's Q1 gross profit margin in 2022 was 20.28%, with a month on month increase of + 1.98pct. The expense rate during the period was 7.76%, with a month on month ratio of -0.72 PCT, of which the sales expense rate and management expense rate were -0.37 PCT / -0.58 PCT respectively. The increase of gross profit margin + the decrease of expense rate during the period jointly promoted the net profit attributable to the parent company to + 47.3% month on month.
The three major aluminum alloy processes are deeply applied to meet the diversified needs of customers, and the cooperation of production and marketing drives the deterministic growth of the company's performance. The company continues to raise funds and investment to extend the process from casting to forging and extrusion. According to the product characteristics adapted to different processes, provide customers with more flexible and comprehensive product solutions and optimize customers' product experience. In addition to the aluminum alloy die casting business, with the continuous release of the capacity of forging factories, it is expected that the revenue scale of forging products will climb rapidly; The market development of aluminum extrusion products continues to increase. Many products such as anti-collision beam, threshold beam, subframe and battery pack box are under research, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the effectiveness of the customer price adjustment mechanism, the gross profit margin rebounded and there were abundant orders on hand. We maintain the company's profit forecast. From 2022 to 2024, the revenue will be 4.380/5.735/7.860 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.9% / + 30.9% / + 37.1%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.96/8.12/1.113 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.2% / + 36.3% / + 37.0%, the corresponding EPS will be 1.33/1.82/2.49 yuan and the corresponding PE will be 18.64/13.68/9.98 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the supply shortage of chips exceeded expectations, the price rise of aluminum alloy exceeded expectations, and the recovery of downstream passenger cars was less than expected.
