Big home: under the background of steady growth, the marginal improvement of the real estate chain drives the upward revision of the post cycle valuation of the real estate sector. China’s steady growth expectation remains unchanged. Real estate is the pillar industry of China’s economy. The landscape of the real estate chain has rebounded, the marginal of real estate has continued to improve, the medium and long-term home demand will be supported, and the beta expectation of the home sector will be significantly enhanced. Since March, some cities across the country, such as Qinhuangdao, Harbin, Quzhou and Zhengzhou, have liberalized the requirements of sales and purchase restrictions. From January to march of 22 years, the total amount of social financing was 12.06 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing scale in March was 325.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. From January to march of the year, the completed investment in real estate development totaled 2776.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.70%. In March, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top 10 and 30 large and medium-sized cities was 5.4101 million square meters and 9.6989 million square meters respectively, a year-on-year decrease of – 48.50% and – 47.33%. From January to march of the year, the completed area of residential housing totaled 123.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 11.3%. From January to march of the year, the newly started area of residential housing totaled 215.58 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of – 20.3%. At present, although real estate sales are still declining, the decline in real estate sales in some areas has narrowed with the appropriate liberalization of purchase and sale restrictions in many places and the reduction of the threshold for the use of provident fund. With the continuous improvement of the long-term mechanism of real estate, the downward trend of national real estate sales is expected to be alleviated. Under the policy guidance of “implementing policies according to the city”, all localities have issued “stabilizing the property market” policies one after another, reducing the proportion of the first down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, weakening the demand side restrictions, and regional regulation is expected to improve the overall fundamentals of real estate from bottom to top. The gradual improvement of the real estate chain will drive the post cycle of real estate, and the liquidity of the home sector is expected to continue to improve. Leading enterprises will take the lead in benefiting from the brand Channel advantages are expected to continue to expand market share.
It is suggested to pay attention to the customization leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , which has complete supporting product matrix, runs through the whole decoration home model and consolidated the leading position of kitchen and clothing. The company actively explores and promotes the new model of “customization and decoration integration”, innovates the channel model, and firmly controls the brand flow entrance and marketing initiative; We are optimistic about Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , with the improvement of the high and middle end brand matrix, the synchronous promotion of multiple categories of cabinet, clothing and wood, the upgrading of the customization strategy of the whole family and the accelerated expansion of new packaging channels; Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , which introduces JD strategic investors, builds the Internet platform of the packaged supply chain and the forward-looking layout of the packaged business, opened the offline experience store in cooperation with JD on November 21, 2001 to provide consumers with high-quality services such as product display and integrated design; Be optimistic about Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (according to the 21-year performance express, the company achieved a revenue of 5.153 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%, including an operating profit of 552 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.50%); pay attention to the steady growth of kitchen cabinet business, the continuous development of wardrobe wooden door channel Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) , the upgrading and expansion of retail channel Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) , the increase of retail customer unit value; It is recommended to introduce war investment empowering Ekornes to grow, “three new” marketing reform to promote retail growth, gradually release Evergrande’s receivables risk, and continuously optimize the financial cost Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) .
FMCG: with the rise of national tide and personal protection, e-commerce promotion demand is large. From January to march in 22, the retail sales of cultural office supplies totaled 94.4 billion yuan, and the retail sales of cultural office supplies totaled 35.6 billion yuan in March, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The demand side continues to pick up. Recently, the epidemic has been repeated in many places, and the growth rate of the demand side may slow down. It is suggested to pay attention to Chenguang shares with strong traditional barriers, high volume of kelip and steady expansion of Jiumu store. We believe that the marginal impact of double reduction is decreasing, and the strong alpha of the company is prominent (the company achieved a revenue of 17.607 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.02%, including an operating profit of 1.783 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.55%); Wood pulp industry fell, gross profit gradually restored C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ; Recommend the all cotton life leader Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , which is driven by two wheels of consumer medicine and has obvious advantages in all channels; Recommend the implementation of the incentive plan, deeply bind the management, highlight the long-term development confidence in the performance evaluation objectives, and expand the channels steadily Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) .
New type of tobacco: the new type of tobacco regulatory policy has been implemented, and attention has been paid to the value of the layout of the new type of tobacco industry chain. In April 2022, China’s e-cigarette policies were successively issued. On April 12, the national standard of e-cigarette was approved. On April 13, the State Administration of market supervision and relevant departments of the state tobacco monopoly administration made clear responses to issues such as the scope of industry supervision, transition period, license application and trading platform. On April 15, five guiding documents were issued for the management rules of product production, wholesale and retail licenses, technical review and traceability, China’s e-cigarette regulatory system has been basically established. SIMORE released its annual report for 21 years, and achieved an operating revenue of 13.755 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 37.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.3%. China’s policy: the compulsory national standard of e-cigarette has been issued and implemented since October 1. The policy is uncertain. It is optimistic about the standardized development of e-cigarette industry for a long time. The national standard of e-cigarette mainly stipulates the following aspects: 1) nicotine extracted from tobacco shall be used, and the purity shall not be less than 99% (mass fraction). The flavor of e-cigarette will mainly express the flavor of tobacco, and the synthesis of nicotine and herbal cigarette bombs are limited. 2) There are 101 kinds of atomizing additives in the white list, including coolants and sweeteners, and the space for preparing sub flavor is reserved. 3) The concentration of nicotine in the atomized material shall not be higher than 20mg / g, and the total amount of nicotine shall not be higher than 200mg. The existing 3% and 5% smoke bombs on the market will not be sold. It is suggested to pay attention to SIMORE international, which has outstanding R & D strength and built high barriers to core manufacturing, and its position of core independent supply is stable. With the implementation of China’s policy this time, the order volume is expected to usher in an inflection point and return to the normal level of last year. We recommend smore international, which has advanced ceramic atomization technology, increased global share, orderly production capacity, special supply advantages for key customers and comprehensive competitiveness of products.
Packaging: the price of pulp continued to be strong, and the price of wrapping paper rose partially. In the metal packaging sector, the canning rate of beer has gradually increased, the upgrading of high-end packaging is obvious, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, driving the significant increase of capacity utilization. It is suggested to pay attention to Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) and so on; In the paper packaging sector, the price of packaging paper raw materials is rising, and the price increase strategy is effectively implemented. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , which benefits from the 5g machine change trend and the continuous growth of consumer electronics. Composite plastic temsector block, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality structure of downstream customers and Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) , which is deeply bound with Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other cheese growth tracks.
Risk tip: real estate regulation tightened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation has been repeated outside China.
