Public funds: the proportion of positions held by real estate stocks increased, and the allocation of head real estate enterprises increased
In the first quarter of 2022, the total market value of public fund positions in the real estate sector was 128.04 billion yuan, an increase of 16.57% month on month. The market value of positions in the real estate sector accounted for 2.12% of the market value of stock investment, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter, and the proportion of positions increased for the third consecutive quarter. In the first quarter, the allocation proportion of the real estate sector was 0.45 percentage points lower than that of the standard industry, and the range of low allocation narrowed for three consecutive quarters. The allocation proportion of the real estate sector ranks sixth in all industry categories, down one place from the fourth quarter of 2021.
In the first quarter of 2022, the top 15 market value of heavy positions of public funds was 250 million yuan, an increase of 37.20% over the fourth quarter of 2021. The top five stocks in the market value of positions are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , respectively. The market value of positions of top 5 real estate enterprises accounts for 49.5% of the sector, and the position concentration of head real estate enterprises increases by 2.48pct compared with the previous period.
In terms of the number of holding funds with heavy positions in individual stocks, public funds held a total of 53 real estate stocks in the first quarter, up 16 from the previous period; The average number of equity funds of each real estate enterprise was 38, up 6 month on month. Among the top 15 real estate stocks with market value in the first quarter, the average number of holding funds was 124, an increase of 48 month on month.
Shanghai Shenzhen Gangtong: the market value of North and South Real Estate positions rebounded
In the first quarter of 2022, the total market value of real estate shares held by northbound capital was 34.71 billion yuan, with a month on month increase of 12.2% (the first positive month on month increase since 2021q1); It accounted for 1.02% of the accumulated capital use limit of land port link, and the capital proportion increased by 0.05 percentage points month on month. After eight consecutive quarters of decline, the proportion of capital real estate in northbound picked up for the first time. In terms of heavy positions in individual stocks, in the first quarter of 2022, the market value of land stock link’s positions was top 5, respectively Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (RMB 10.19 billion), Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Oct a, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , with a total stock value of 24.17 billion, accounting for 69.6% of the total market value of real estate investment.
In the first quarter of 2022, the total market value of real estate positions in southbound funds was 98.12 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% month on month; The proportion of funds in the southward direction was 2.88%, and the proportion of funds decreased by 0.03pct month on month, narrowing the historical decline month on month. From the perspective of the mainstream real estate stocks allocated, the top 5 market values of Hong Kong stock connect positions in the first quarter of 2022 were China Overseas Development (RMB 12.39 billion), country garden services, China Resources Land, rongchuang China and poly property respectively, with a total stock market value of 40.96 billion, accounting for 41.7% of the total market value of real estate investment.
Investment strategy: grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service. It is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Yuexiu real estate, China Construction Development International and other local state-owned enterprises.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected
