Market review:
Last week (April 18-april 22, 2022), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 5.76%, the CSI 300 index rose by – 4.19%, and the machinery industry lost 1.57pct relative to the CSI 300 index. One sector of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 22nd, with the overall performance in the downstream.
Key data update:
1) photovoltaic equipment: according to the data released by the national energy administration, the installed capacity of Q1 photovoltaic increased by 13.2gw, a year-on-year increase of + 148%. Reliance Industries of India purchased 8 complete lines of hjt equipment from Maiwei, with a capacity of 600MW / line, totaling 4.8gw Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) won the bid for Jingke energy’s 1.067 billion yuan laser micro loss equipment, focusing on the industrialized application of laser technology in photovoltaic equipment. 2) Lithium battery equipment: in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 465000 and 484000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 114.8% and + 114.1%, and a month on month increase of + 25.4% and – 43.9%. In March, the shipment volume of power battery increased significantly year-on-year, with the output of 39.2gwh, year-on-year + 247.3%; The installed capacity was 21.4gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 138.0%. 3) Construction machinery: CME estimated that the sales volume of excavators in April was 26500 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 43%, and the decline was slightly improved compared with the previous month.
Key points of the industry:
Photovoltaic equipment: Q1 photovoltaic installed capacity + 148%, focusing on the industrialized application of laser in the photovoltaic field. Battery link: Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) announced the bid winning of 1.067 billion yuan Jingke energy TOPCON laser micro loss equipment, and the conversion efficiency is expected to increase by 0.2% – 0.4%. This is the first 1 billion level order for the application of laser technology in TOPCON production line. The application of laser technology in the industrialization of photovoltaic cells has received key attention from the market. Components: according to the quarterly report of component equipment leader Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 1, the newly signed orders in Q1 were 1.44 billion yuan, and the orders on hand at the end of 22q1 were 4.894 billion yuan. Among them, the newly signed orders of component equipment were significantly faster than those in other years, especially the number of newly signed top orders overseas. Under technological innovations such as large-size and smbb, the demand for stock + new component equipment has increased greatly, and the leader of component equipment is expected to benefit. The downstream installed capacity data is better, and the production expansion progress of battery and component enterprises is accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading of battery and component enterprises.
Semiconductor equipment: the downstream demand is strong, and the substitution of domestic equipment is expected to accelerate. In February, the global semiconductor sales reached US $52.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32.4%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20% for 11 consecutive months. In February, the shipment of semiconductor equipment in Japan was 294.01 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of + 56.8% and a month on month decrease of – 4.02% Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) won the batch order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) bonding machine, and the domestic substitution of semiconductor sealing and testing equipment was accelerated. At present, domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate.
Lithium battery equipment: in March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a market penetration of 21.7%. In March, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were + 114.8% and + 114.1% year-on-year. GGII expects that the market sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles will exceed 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. With the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by new technologies such as 4680.
Machinery and equipment: the sales volume of excavator continued to decline in March, and the marginal demand for construction machinery improved under steady growth. Under the interference of the epidemic in the first quarter and the rise of raw material costs, the purchasing managers’ indexes of manufacturing and non manufacturing industries fell to the contraction range. Considering the target of GDP growth of 5.5% this year, the demand for steady economic growth is prominent. In terms of downstream infrastructure projects, the central government requires the formation of practical workload as soon as possible, moderately advance infrastructure investment, and relax the regulation of real estate in some cities, resulting in the improvement of the marginal demand for construction machinery.
Risk factors: downstream demand is less than expected, industry competition intensifies risk, and epidemic disturbance risk
