Recently, the outbreak of the epidemic in Beijing and other places has increased the market’s concern about demand. According to the IEA monthly report released in mid April, considering the impact of the Shanghai epidemic, it is estimated that China’s crude oil demand in 2022q1-q4 will be reduced to 1540, 1540, 16 and 16 million barrels / day, with an average of 15.7 million barrels / day in 2022, while the IEA monthly report in March predicts that 2022q1-q4 will be 15.5, 16, 16 and 16 million barrels / day respectively, with an average of 15.9 million barrels / day in 2022, IEA mainly reduced the demand in the second quarter by Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels / day. We believe that if the prevention and control measures in Beijing and other places are significantly upgraded, China’s crude oil demand may decline in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, and the oil price will be under pressure in the short term.
The production capacity cycle has triggered great energy inflation, and we continue to be optimistic about the historic allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil. We believe that whether it is traditional oil and gas resources or American shale oil, capital expenditure is the main reason for limiting crude oil production. Considering that the global capital expenditure on crude oil is insufficient for a long time, the elasticity of global crude oil supply will decline. In the transformation of old and new energy sources, the demand for crude oil is still growing, and the world will face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years. The international oil price will usher in an upward turning point in 2022. In the medium and long term, the oil price will remain high for a long time, and the energy resources are expected to be in an upward cycle in the next 3-5 years. We will continue to be firmly optimistic about this round of energy inflation, We continue to be optimistic about the historical allocation of crude oil resources.
Risk factors: the risk of re spread of covid-19 epidemic in the world; New energy sources increase the risk of replacing traditional oil demand; Risk of OPEC + alliance modifying production plan; The risk that OPEC + oil producing countries have insufficient production capacity and the production rate is lower than expected; The United States lifted sanctions against Iran, and the risk of Iran’s crude oil returning to the market quickly; The risk of US policy adjustment on shale oil production, environmental protection and financing; Risk of global 2050 net zero emission policy adjustment.
