Core view
Market review this week. In the 16th week, the real estate sector index was weaker than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was – 5%. The CSI 300 index closed at 401325, with a weekly increase of – 4.2%; The gem index closed at 229660, with a weekly increase of – 6.7%; The real estate sector index closed at 334645, with a weekly increase of – 9.2%.
Industry highlights this week. Central bank: reasonably determine the minimum down payment ratio and minimum loan interest rate due to urban policies; Do not blindly withdraw loans, cut off loans and suppress loans. Cbcirc: support the improvement and rigid housing demand. Ministry of housing and urban rural development: adhere to the bottom line thinking and attach great importance to the risks in the real estate field. The new land construction area of the top 50 real estate enterprises from January to March decreased by 69.3% year-on-year. A batch of RMB 26.5 billion in Ningbo sold 33 parcels of land. In Nanjing, 14 parcels of land were sold in a batch, and 6 were sold in a stream. The proportion of down payment for Fuzhou’s second application for pure housing provident fund loan was adjusted to 40%. Suzhou provident fund personal down loan limit was raised to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) yuan.
Sales of new houses and second-hand houses this week increased slightly compared with last week. In the 16th week, 22000 new houses were sold in 29 major cities, an increase of 5.4% over the 15th week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities were 9000 units, an increase of 9.4% over the 15th week; Compared with the 15th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were 30.1% and 3.0% respectively; Compared with the 15th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were 16.6% and 6.0% respectively. The inventory and stock to sales ratio increased compared with last week. As of the 16th week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1225000 sets, an increase of 3000 sets compared with the 15th week; The stock to sales ratio was 19.7 months, an increase of 0.9 months over the 15th week. The number of land market transfers increased compared with last week. In the 16th week, a total of 51 pieces of land were sold in 26 big cities. The amount of land transfer increased. In the 16th week, the land transfer fee of 26 major cities was 52.87 billion yuan, an increase of 50.73 billion yuan compared with the 15th week. The average premium rate rose. In the 16th week, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 3.1%, up from the 15th week. In the 16th week, the number of land auction in 26 big cities was 6.
Announcement of key companies Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) and other companies issued 2021 annual report. Wanda Commercial Management resubmitted the prospectus The coupon rate of the bond remains at 200005 0 after the “coupon period” of 20 years Tahoe Group Co.Ltd(000732) significantly revised the performance forecast and turned from profit to loss of RMB 3.5 ~ 4.6 billion. Investment proposal and investment object
This week, the sales of new and second-hand houses are still low, and the performance of the local auction market is differentiated. Combined with the sharp decline of various statistical indicators of the real estate industry in the first quarter, it reflects that the current industry fundamentals are still in the bottom stage, the credit of private real estate enterprises and the confidence of buyers are still insufficient, and the pressure of weakening supply and demand remains unabated. In the context of steady growth, there are still policy correction expectations in the follow-up. From the voice of various ministries and commissions, we believe that we should not expect too much from the demand side stimulus policy. The policy will show a balanced force at both ends of supply and demand: the supply side will continue to promote the discount sale projects of problematic real estate enterprises and appropriately reduce the liquidity run, and more cities on the demand side will gradually follow up and relax regulation. The final result is that the owner’s equity of the problem real estate enterprises has been lost, the creditors have suffered a certain degree of loss on average, and the resident Department has slowly increased a certain degree of leverage. We think it is not a good strategy to find marginal real estate enterprises at this stage. We continue to recommend the combination of state-owned enterprises and high credit private enterprises, and look forward to the front-line leaders with stable performance. We recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , buy), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) ( Gemdale Corporation(600383) , buy) and Longhu group (00960, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industry with rapid growth and less credit damage. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ( China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ( New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
