In the first quarter, the proportion of heavy positions in bank shares increased by 0.72 percentage points to 2.42% month on month compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) obtained the most significant additional allocation. In addition to leading stocks, the attention of undervalued large and medium-sized banks and high-quality regional banks has increased.
The real estate sector is not fully affected by the repeated changes in the expected growth of the real estate sector, but the “recovery” of the real estate sector tends to be weak, which has a negative impact on the economic growth of the real estate sector. The epidemic situation may improve in the second quarter, the effectiveness of infrastructure is also gradually emerging, and there is still no lack of catalysis in bank stocks. At the same time, we will also continue to observe the impact of changes in real estate, export and manufacturing on bank stock selection.
Reiterate the view that steady growth and steady real estate should be strengthened, and continue to be optimistic about the bank market. High quality city commercial banks are preferred, and individual stocks continue to recommend high-quality regional banks: Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and so on, focusing on the value of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
The proportion of heavy positions of banks rebounded month on month, and continued to be optimistic about the sector Market under the main line of “steady growth”
As of April 22, 2022, the quarterly report of A-share fund 1 has been released and counted. According to our statistics, at the end of the first quarter, the proportion of the total market value of listed bank shares in the total market value of the fund increased by 0.72 percentage points to 2.42% compared with the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. We believe that the main reasons for the increase in the proportion of heavy positions of banks in the first quarter include: 1) the enhanced market defense attribute and the increased attention of undervalued sectors; 2) The direction of steady growth policy is clear, the margin of real estate policy is loose, and market concerns are alleviated; 3) The overall performance of the bank’s annual report is good, and the fundamentals remain stable.
Since April (as of April 22), affected by overseas interest rate hikes, repeated epidemics and intensified market concerns about the economy, the market adjustment continued. The CSI 300 index fell 5.0%, but the banking sector outperformed the index by 4.6 percentage points. We believe that “stabilizing the economy” in 2022 is the main line. The recent regulatory measures, such as reducing the reserve requirement, encouraging large banks and high-quality banks to reduce the provision coverage, and reducing the floating ceiling of deposit interest rate, are all aimed at stabilizing the economic fundamentals, enhancing the strength and willingness of banks to support the real economy, and forming a positive cycle with the improvement of corporate financing demand. At present, the position ratio of the sector is still low. Recently, the bank’s quarterly report 1 has successively disclosed that the profits of small and medium-sized banks that have announced their performance are better and continue to be optimistic about the bank market.
Undervalued stocks were allocated, and regional banks may perform better in the second quarter
From the absolute level of heavy positions, the top five banks with positions at the end of the first quarter were China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) Bo, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , accounting for 0.82%, 0.57%, 0.19%, 0.13% and 0.11% respectively.
Judging from the quarterly change trend, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) obtained the most significant share increase, with an increase of 17bp and 11bp compared with the fourth quarter of 2021. From the increase of other stocks, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) heavy positions increased by 9bp, 8bp, 6BP, 5bp, 4bp and 4bp month on month. The change of position reflects that the market not only adhered to the main line of “high-quality leader” in the first quarter, but also paid more attention to the allocation and cost performance of undervalued stocks. In the first quarter, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , the proportion of heavy positions decreased by 7bp month on month. In terms of individual stocks, considering the changes in market style, we think high-quality regional banks may perform better in the second quarter.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation has been repeated, the export demand has weakened, and the economy has fallen more than expected; Financial regulation exceeded expectations.
