Express business volume data in March 2022. Express industry: in March 2022, the business volume of express enterprises across the country reached 8.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; In 2022q1, China’s express delivery enterprises achieved 24.23 billion pieces of business, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. The year-on-year decline in express business volume in March was mainly affected by the closure and control of the epidemic in some cities in China, but the express business volume in 2022q1 still achieved double-digit growth.
Four listed express companies: in March 2022, SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong respectively achieved year-on-year growth of express business volume / business volume: 803 million pieces / – 7.91%, 1582 million pieces / + 4.35%, 1417 million pieces / + 5.06% and 987 million pieces / + 8.76%. Although affected by the monthly epidemic, the business volume of the three Tongda express companies achieved positive growth, which were higher than the growth rate of the industry. The year-on-year decline in SF’s business volume is mainly due to: 1) SF has actively optimized its product structure and reduced the number of low gross profit products since the second half of 2021; 2) The company’s business volume fluctuated in March due to the closure and control of the epidemic in some cities in China. In 2022q1, SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong achieved year-on-year growth of express business volume / business volume respectively: 2.430 billion pieces / – 1.50%, 4.310 billion pieces / + 19.62%, 3.713 billion pieces / + 18.06% and 2.699 billion pieces / + 26.18%.
Market share of express companies in March 2022. In March 2022, the market share of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong reached 9.40%, 18.52%, 16.59% and 11.56% respectively. Compared with 2022q1, the market share changes of these four companies were -0.63, + 0.74, + 1.27 and + 0.42 percentage points respectively. In 2022q1, the market share of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong are 10.03%, 17.79%, 15.32% and 11.14% respectively.
Revenue and unit price data in March 2022. Express industry: in March, the business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%; The single ticket income was 9.58 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.06%. Four listed express companies: SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong achieved single ticket revenue / year-on-year growth of 15.52 yuan / + 2.24%, 2.59 yuan / + 18.26%, 2.48 yuan / + 10.11% and 2.56 yuan / + 13.78% respectively. Since the end of 2021, the settlement mode of rookie wrapping business in Express business of Tongda express company has been adjusted from settlement with franchisees to direct settlement with the company. After excluding this influencing factor, Yuantong Shentong achieved single ticket revenue / year-on-year growth of 2.40 yuan / + 6.59% and 2.43 yuan / + 8.00% respectively; The year-on-year growth rate of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in March 2022 was between 10% – 19%, of which Yunda increased by 18.26%. Compared with the data of March 2021, the price competition in the market of these leading express companies has eased to a great extent in the same period of 2022. In terms of month on month comparison, in March 2022, Yunda’s single ticket revenue increased by 10.68% month on month, Shentong and Yuantong’s single ticket revenue decreased by 1.16% and 6.77% month on month respectively, and Shunfeng’s single ticket revenue increased by 0.52% month on month. We believe that the change of supply and demand in peak season and the tightening of regulatory policies have a great impact on the single ticket income, but on the whole, the single ticket income performance of Tongda department during the Spring Festival continues the trend after October 2021, and the test on the single ticket income of Tongda department in the off-season will be greater in the future, but at present, the trend of slowing down the price war is still expected to continue.
Industry pattern. From January to March 2022, the brand concentration index CR8 of express and parcel services was 84.9, down 0.4 from January to February.
Investment advice. In the short term, we suggest paying attention to Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , which has significantly improved the single ticket revenue. In the medium and long term, we suggest paying attention to S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , which has improved the business situation quarter by quarter and gradually strengthened the brand barrier.
Risk warning. The price war has made a comeback, the growth rate of e-commerce parts has slowed down, the labor cost has increased significantly, and the oil price fluctuates.
