Production profile of national power industry from January to March 2022
In March, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 694.4 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2022 was 6.6%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 670.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and the three-year CAGR was 5.6%; The average utilization hours of power generation equipment are 302 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9 hours; The newly installed capacity was 8.26 million kilowatts, an increase of 340000 kilowatts over the same period last year.
From January to March, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 2.04 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2022 was 6.7%; The power generation capacity of power plants above the national standard was 1.99 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and the three-year CAGR was 6.0%; The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 899 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 18 hours, a decrease of 1.7%. By the end of March, the installed capacity of power plants above designated size was 2.242 billion kw, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and the three-year CAGR was 7.3%; From January to March, the newly installed capacity was 31.75 million KW, 8.24 million KW more than the same period last year, an increase of 35.0%; The total investment in power supply and power grid projects of major power enterprises was 143.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and the three-year CAGR was 16.5%.
Key indicators
Electricity consumption: after cold winter and spring, the demand will fall further; Yunnan rebounded significantly, while Jiangsu and Shandong declined rapidly.
Power generation: Hydropower starts the harvest season, and the output of thermal power is under pressure.
Utilization hours: water, wind and light increased significantly in a single month, and fire and nuclear gave way.
New installed capacity: 4.5gw of wind and light are added in a single month, and only thermal power is less than that in the same period.
Project investment: the monthly investment of photovoltaic exceeds that of wind power for the first time.
Investment advice
On the one hand, winter and spring alternate in advance, reducing heating demand; On the other hand, the added value of industries above Designated Size in March fell by 2.5pct month on month compared with that from January to February, so the power demand of the whole society fell further.
The incoming water continues the trend of partial abundance since the beginning of the year. In March, the hydropower generation reached the level of the same period in 2019, and the cumulative output of 1q22 has exceeded 1q19222, or the harvest season will start again; With the decline of power demand and the increase of hydropower output, the pressure of thermal power may be transmitted to the upstream coal supply and demand. The hydropower sector recommends China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , and carefully recommends Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) ; Recommended for thermal power sector Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) , recommended by nuclear power sector, and Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) , recommended with caution; Operation section is recommended.
Risk tips
Utilization hours decline: macroeconomic operation will affect utilization hours;
Fluctuation of on grid price: electricity market-oriented transaction may cause fluctuation of on grid price;
Rising coal prices: for thermal power enterprises dominated by coal engines, rising fuel costs will reduce profits;
Precipitation reduction: the operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption;
The promotion of the policy is not as expected: the regulation of electricity price by the policy always exists, and the state of power supply and demand may affect the construction of new nuclear power units.
