Macro: fiscal expenditure accelerated, and the world bank lowered its global economic growth forecast. In the first quarter, the national general fiscal revenue was 8.6% year-on-year, the expenditure was 8.3% year-on-year, the government fund revenue was – 25.6% year-on-year, and the expenditure was 43% year-on-year. The front-end characteristics of fiscal expenditure in March were obvious. With the later mitigation of the epidemic, the physical investment in infrastructure may usher in a rush market. On April 18, the president of the world bank said that the global economic growth forecast for 2022 would be lowered to 3.2% from the 4.1% forecast in January.
Steel: with the arrival of “de production differentiation”, the industry has ushered in a good opportunity for layout. This week, the output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.14% month on month, and the consumption increased slightly by 0.07% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 73.4%, with a slight decrease of 0.27pct month on month. On April 19, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other departments conducted research and deployment on the reduction of crude steel output in 2022. The meeting pointed out that the reduction of crude steel output will continue in 2022 to avoid “one size fits all” and ensure the year-on-year decline of national crude steel output in 2022.
New energy metals: the supply is released steadily, the demand is expected to cool down, and the price of lithium salt continues to adjust. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 471500 yuan / ton, a significant decrease of 3.97% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 467000 yuan / ton, down 5.47% month on month. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased slightly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 decreased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $33775 / ton, up 1.58% month on month.
Industrial metals: Overseas disturbance intensified, and many mining enterprises lowered copper production guidelines. The operating rate of primary copper refining and PCRC refining remained at a high level of 90.0% in February compared with that of the whole week, and the output of primary copper refining and PCRC refining was significantly higher than that of the whole week; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month, while LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased slightly by 0.1% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 1% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia increased month on month this week.
Gold: US bond yields rose and gold prices fell slightly month on month. This week, Comex gold price decreased slightly by 1.20% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased slightly by 1.28% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.9%, up slightly by 1.32pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to new energy nuclear power special material suppliers, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy) with both copper and gold ends expanding; And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) ( Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) , not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
