Ping An View:
22q1 the proportion of heavy fund positions in the bank sector rebounded month on month, but it is still relatively low. After the disclosure of the report of A-share fund in the first quarter of 2022, according to statistics, the bank sector of active management fund allocation in Q1, including partial shares and stocks, increased by 64bp to 2.89% month on month, and the position increased significantly month on month after continuous decline, but it is still at a historical low, and the low allocation continues (15.4 percentage points lower than the proportion of the circulation market value of the sector in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300). We believe that the main reasons for the rebound of 22q1 bank stock positions are as follows: 1) the defensive attribute of bank stocks gradually reflected under the background of sharp market fluctuations in the first quarter; 2) Under the impact of the epidemic, the overall financial stability of banks has comparable advantages.
High quality joint-stock banks / regional banks were increased, and the positions of China Merchants Bank and Societe Generale increased significantly. From the position allocation of 22q1 bank, China Merchants Bank and Societe Generale, the leading joint-stock banks, obtained the increase of actively managed funds, which increased by 12bp / 11bp respectively compared with the position at the end of 2021; Q1 positions of large state-owned banks have increased month on month. The positions of ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of communications, Bank of China and postal savings active funds have increased by 8bp / 4bp / 3bp / 3bp / 2bp / 2bp respectively compared with the end of 2021; Among regional banks, high-quality urban rural commercial banks such as Ningbo, Jiangsu and Chengdu have been allocated to varying degrees, and their positions have increased by 6BP / 4bp / 4bp respectively compared with the end of 2021.
Investment suggestion: Policy correction is expected to improve, and continue to be optimistic about valuation repair. Looking forward to the second quarter of 2022, with the force of steady growth policy and the correction of real estate policy, the industry will still be in the channel of negative expectation improvement. At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.61x, which is still at an absolute low in history, and the margin of safety is sufficient. We are still optimistic about the valuation repair opportunities of the banking sector. Individual stocks recommend high-quality regional banks represented by Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) with obvious marginal improvement in fundamentals and better growth than peers.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on asset quality of the industry. 2) The decline in interest rates led to a narrower than expected industry interest margin. 3) The increase of cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises leads to the rise of credit risk.
