Key investment points
We selected 178 A shares in the residential industry chain (including 55 in the real estate industry, 59 in the construction industry and 64 in the building materials industry) as the sample subject, It is further subdivided into three categories and 10 secondary industries (pre infrastructure real estate cycle: real estate development, design consulting, infrastructure real estate construction and cement; post infrastructure real estate cycle: glass fiber, decoration, decoration building materials and real estate services; others: other materials and professional projects), and the review of the industrial chain market and the analysis of the heavy holdings of public funds in the first quarter of 2022 are carried out.
Industry chain Market Review: 2021q4 yield is in line with the market. In this quarter (2022q1, the same below), the yield of the housing industry chain significantly outperformed the market, with the real estate sector performing the strongest, followed by the construction sector, and the building materials sector slightly outperforming the market. The average rise and fall of the residential industry chain in this quarter was – 1.22%, and the excess return relative to all A-Shares was + 10.94%. Among them, the average rise and fall of real estate, construction and building materials were + 7.86%, – 1.20% and – 13.26% respectively, and the excess returns were + 20.02%, + 10.96% and – 1.10% respectively. From April 1 to 22, 2022, the performance of the residential industry chain was basically the same as that of the market, among which the construction sector performed the strongest, followed by the real estate sector, and the building materials sector slightly lost the market.
Industry position: We selected the common stock funds (excluding passive index funds and index enhancement funds) in the stock funds, the partial stock hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds and flexible allocation funds in the hybrid funds as the sample funds. (1) The overall position of the residential industry chain was significantly increased, and the over allocation example was slightly higher than that of the historical center: in this quarter, the stock market value of the residential industry chain (real estate, construction and building materials industries under shenwanxin classification) accounted for 4.67% (18% in recent 10 years), an increase of 1.08pct compared with the previous quarter, an over allocation proportion of – 1.68% (68% in recent 10 years), and + 0.32pct compared with the previous quarter. (2) Among the primary industries, the real estate industry has the largest increase in positions, and the over allocation proportion is higher than that of the historical center: the market value of fund heavy positions in the real estate, construction and building materials industries accounted for 2.59%, 0.73% and 1.34% of A-Shares respectively in this quarter (the percentages in recent 10 years were 20%, 30% and 55% respectively), with a month on month ratio of + 0.74pct, + 0.18pct and + 0.16pct respectively in the previous quarter; The over allocation ratio of real estate, construction and building materials industries was – 0.18%, – 1.46%, – 0.03% (the percentage ranking in recent 10 years was 68%, 50% and 58% respectively), with a month on month ratio of + 0.23pct, -0.07pct and + 0.16pct respectively in the previous quarter. (3) Decoration building materials, cement and capital construction houses have the largest warehouse increase, and other materials have reduced their warehouse more. The market value of other materials, professional factories and heavy warehouses in real estate development accounts for a historically high proportion of the circulation market. Decoration and design consulting. Cement is at a historically low level: the three sub sectors with the largest increase in the market value of the fund’s heavy holdings compared with the previous quarter are decoration building materials (+ 0.94pct), cement (+ 0.32pct), infrastructure and housing construction (+ 0.30pct), and the three sub sectors with the largest decrease are other materials (- 3.98pct), glass fiber (- 0.88pct) and decoration (- 0.70pct). The three sub sectors with the highest percentage of the market value of the fund’s heavy holdings in the circulation market in recent 10 years are other materials (85%), professional engineering (83%) and real estate development (83%), and the three sub sectors with the lowest percentage in recent 10 years are decoration (5%), design consulting (6%) and cement (30%).
Individual stock positions: (1) market value of individual stock positions: the top five of the total market value of heavy positions held by public funds in the residential industry chain in this quarter are Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (RMB 25.23 billion), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (RMB 14.55 billion), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (RMB 12.3 billion), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (RMB 8.24 billion) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (RMB 5.75 billion). (2) Changes in individual stock positions: calculated by the proportion of heavy positions in tradable shares, the top five positions in the previous quarter were Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) (+ 4.18 PCT), Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) (+ 4.12 PCT), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (+ 4.03 PCT), Anhui Fuhuang Steel Structure Co.Ltd(002743) (+ 3.49 PCT) and Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (+ 3.20 PCT); The top five positions reduction ranges are Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) (- 13.01pct), Quakesafe Technologies Co.Ltd(300767) (- 5.87pct), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (- 4.57 PCT), Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) (- 4.50pct) and Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (- 2.08 PCT)
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeds expectations, the real estate credit risk is out of control, the policy concentration exceeds expectations, and the data statistics may deviate within the allowable range.
