Key investment points
The performance of securities business in the first quarter was under pressure. Since the beginning of the year, due to the geopolitical changes and the spread of the epidemic beyond expectations, the secondary market shock has intensified, and the average daily turnover has also shrunk, which has a certain impact on the performance of securities companies, among which the self operated performance is the biggest factor China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) announced the results of the first quarter, realizing an operating revenue of 3.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.99%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.490 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.90%. There was a big decline in self operated business. The first quarter report of China stock market news achieved a total operating revenue of 3.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.63%. The fund consignment business is under pressure. The valuation of the securities industry is low. In the early stage, affected by the overall decline of the market, the valuation of the securities industry also moved down rapidly. At present, the valuation of Pb is 1.30 times, which is in the low quantile in the past decade, and the industry is rated as “synchronous trend”.
Industry data:
(1) wealth management
Secondary market performance: as of April 22, the stock index closed lower than that at the beginning of the year. The gem index closed down 30.88%, the CSI 500 closed down 21.99%, the CSI 300 index closed down 18.77%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 closed down 14.05%.
New investors: new investors: in March 2022, 2.302 million new investors were added, with a month on month increase of + 62.73% and a year-on-year increase of – 7.08%.
Trading volume: trading volume: since 2022, the daily trading volume has remained at the level of trillion yuan. Last week, the turnover was 3.99 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 0.80 trillion yuan, a month on month increase of – 12.06%.
Two financial services: as of April 22, the balance of two financial services was 1.60 trillion yuan, down from – 12.63% at the end of the previous year. Among them, the balance of financing was 1.52 trillion yuan, up – 11.39% from the end of the previous year, and the balance of securities lending was 83.775 billion yuan, up – 30.27% from the end of the previous year.
Stock pledge business: the number and proportion of Pledged Shares in the market fell month on month. As of April 22, there were 413203 billion pledged shares in the market, down from – 1.58% at the end of the previous year, accounting for 5.49% of the total share capital.
(2) investment bank
According to the statistics of the listing date, the total scale of equity financing last week was 30.364 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 10%, including 10.362 billion yuan raised by IPO, 1.065 billion yuan raised by additional issuance and 18.937 billion yuan raised by convertible bonds.
(3) investment
Bond market performance: as of April 22, the China bond – total price (gross value) index closed down 0.28% from the beginning of the year. Commodities: as of April 15, the commodity index closed at 205.95, up 14.00% from the beginning of the year. Revenue voucher business: in January 2022, securities companies issued 3642 revenue vouchers in total, with a new issuance scale of 109465 billion yuan. Among them, 841 revenue vouchers were issued through the quotation system, with an issuance scale of 40.09 billion yuan; 2801 revenue vouchers were issued through the counter market, with an issuance scale of 69.375 billion yuan. As of the end of the period, the existing scale was 445438 billion yuan.
OTC derivatives business: in January 2022, securities companies carried out OTC financial derivatives transactions, adding an initial nominal principal of 612449 billion yuan; By the end of the period, the total outstanding initial nominal principal of OTC financial derivatives was 2075678 billion yuan. In January 2022, the nominal principal of swap business increased by 329355 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 24.98%; The new nominal principal of option business was 283094 billion yuan, a month on month increase of – 19.60%.
Risk tips
The situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate;
The secondary market fell sharply;
The epidemic situation exceeded expectations;
The capital market reform was not as expected.
