This week’s view
The core assets of Hong Kong stock Internet have strong allocation and cost performance. The marginal improvement signal of policy has been released, waiting for the marginal improvement in performance brought by the recovery of the epidemic and the recovery of the industry. 1) The loosening of game version numbers is a substantive policy relaxation and a signal of sector reversal. Platform companies will benefit from the resumption of game version numbers; 2) The problem of personnel optimization of Internet companies still exists. In this case, it is expected that the labor cost can be controlled; 3) In the second half of the year, the performance of Internet companies is expected to improve in the process of epidemic and industry repair. The performance and valuation of leading companies in the Hong Kong stock Internet sector have continued to be under pressure in the past year. The valuation is in a historical position and has a certain margin of safety. The market has relatively full expectations of the impact of the current regulatory direction on the business model of Internet companies. The operation of Internet platform pays more attention to long-term high-quality development and efficiency improvement.
Epidemic repair layout: fresh e-commerce and self operated e-commerce are more resilient during the epidemic, and the recovery of offline consumption is expected to drive the growth of advertising. 1) During the epidemic period, the fresh e-commerce business in the first and second tier cities is booming, and a new round of user education is expected to be carried out. The cultivation of user habits is expected to improve, driving the long-term improvement of user activity in relevant sectors. 2) The resilience of self operated e-commerce shows that the platform with stronger voice in goods right and logistics right has won more user trust during the epidemic, which is expected to deepen user stickiness. 3) Affected by home office and isolation measures, the activity of online office business and pan entertainment sector is expected to increase. 4) The epidemic may promote the rhythm of enterprises going to the cloud, and the penetration rate of Tob end Internet business is expected to increase. 5) The social circle of acquaintances with wechat as the core has advantages under the circumstances of “difficulty in grabbing vegetables” online during the epidemic. The private domain traffic operation of merchants is becoming more and more important. The combination of follow-up and applet is expected to improve the social based business value of wechat.
Investment advice
It is suggested to lay out high-quality Internet assets in the long term. 1) Compared with zhonggai shares, the attraction of Hong Kong stock Internet to investors is improved, and the Hong Kong stock market may become an important scene for long-term Internet configuration. From the perspective of employees and organizational structure, Internet companies will focus more on their main business and pay attention to fine and high-quality development in the future. 2) Individual stocks: focus on the adjustment of organizational structure and focus on meituan in retail; Jd.com, which has stronger self support + supply chain advantage and stability; For the game sector, it is suggested that Tencent holdings, which focuses on the establishment of Tianmei F1 studio and speeds up the overseas layout, launch Netease, a global IP mobile game Harry Potter, and Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , which connects the P & S mode and accelerates the iteration of subsequent SLG products to the sea; Target of absolute return of a shares: it is recommended to focus on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , which has the advantage of long video content, layout mango metauniverse and new track of content e-commerce + offline entertainment scene.
Industry highlights
There have been outbreaks in many places in Beijing, and sealing control measures are being implemented in many residential areas. Orders from platforms such as HEMA, jd.com and meituan continue to rise. All platforms increase the inventory of relevant commodities, prepare goods according to 3-5 times of daily consumption, and ensure the safety of commodities and performance link through contactless distribution.
The May 1 box office was under pressure due to the impact of the epidemic, and many films were withdrawn. As of 4:00 p.m. on April 25, cat’s eye data showed that the pre-sale box office on the first day of May Day (2022 / 4 / 30) was nearly 50000. Many films that had been scheduled during the May Day holiday announced their withdrawal, and only four films were released on April 30.
The investment promotion conference of “Tiktok 618 good things Festival” will be held on April 26. The activity time is from June 1 to June 18.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic risk is lower than expected, policy risk, industry competition intensifies, meta universe technology iteration and application risk is lower than expected, data statistical error, etc.
