Recommended target and beneficial target
Home appliance industry: the industry of home appliance: the industry of the home appliance industry: the industry of the recommended subject: the Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) \ , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , the beneficiary object is Biyi shares and vesync
Textile and clothing industry: recommended targets Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , benefited targets Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , Bros Eastern Co.Ltd(601339) , weijenny
Light industry: recommended targets Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) , Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , beneficial targets Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) , Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) , Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610)
The expected depreciation of RMB + the decline of shipping prices + tariff exemption may be beneficial to the improvement of the prosperity of the export and consumer industry. In March 2022, the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate increase cycle, superimposed on China’s monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose state, resulting in the dislocation of China US monetary policy and the yield difference of China US 10-year Treasury bonds to a record low. The narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States has increased the pressure of RMB devaluation. On April 22, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been significantly reduced for three consecutive days. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, if there is no significant change in U.S. inflation and economic fundamentals, it is expected that the Fed’s interest rate hike will continue. If China’s monetary policy remains stable, medium and loose, the interest rate gap between China and the United States remains low and the international capital outflow may continue, the depreciation trend will continue in the short term, which is good for export enterprises dominated by foreign currency settlement. In addition, the overall freight rate of sea transportation continues to decline. SCFI has fallen for 14 consecutive weeks on April 22. The profit elasticity brought by the superposition of tariff exemption will also thicken the performance, or be conducive to the improvement of the prosperity of the export and consumer industry.
The depreciation of RMB in the history of resumption of trading is positively related to exchange earnings. Looking forward to the future, this round of depreciation may thicken the performance
(1) through the correlation between the three rounds of RMB devaluation and the exchange gains and losses in the same period, it is found that the correlation coefficients of the exchange gains and losses and exchange rate changes in the same period of each company with a large proportion of export sales are positive, indicating that when the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB rises, each company is more likely to benefit from the devaluation of the RMB and have exchange gains. (2) By measuring the elasticity of RMB devaluation on the exchange earnings of relevant companies, it is found that the rise is defined as the proportion of the rise of the US dollar against the RMB at the end of the period compared with the average rise of the US dollar against the RMB in the whole year. When the US dollar against the RMB is expected to rise by about 1% in 2022, the falling of the depreciation expectation can bring varying degrees of exchange earnings elasticity to relevant export and consumer companies.
The easing of negative sentiment is conducive to the recovery of the export industry. Paying attention to the factors such as the devaluation of RMB, the mitigation of shipping and tariff exemption of high-quality export enterprises under the three main investment lines is conducive to the recovery of the export industry. The valuation of high-quality export consumer enterprises with stable Fundamentals is expected to be repaired first. Based on this, we put forward three main investment lines: (1) improve the layout of overseas production capacity, Recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) ; (2) For excellent private brand enterprises with good growth and strong endogenous growth ability in the track, Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , JS global life are recommended; (3) Enterprises whose production capacity is mainly located in China, but whose downstream orders are highly predictable, recommend Ningbo Dechang Electrical Machinery Made Co.Ltd(605555) and Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) . However, for enterprises whose production capacity is mainly located in China and the predictability of downstream orders is weak, we believe that the performance is unstable at the current time point and take a cautious wait-and-see attitude.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials rises; Sea freight rates rebounded rapidly; The RMB exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
