\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 677 Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) )
Performance: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 36 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.0%
On April 25, 2022, the company disclosed the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The total operating revenue in 2021 was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 118 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The operating revenue of 02022q1 was 93 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.0%. After the improvement of overseas epidemic control, the orders of Stryker increased significantly, and the revenue growth in 2022 is expected.
The orders of Stryker increased significantly, and the whole machine was approved to open the revenue ceiling
Stryker’s orders are expected to increase significantly. According to the company’s annual report, the 4K fluorescent laparoscope developed by American customers has completed the R & D and trial production process, and is ready to achieve mass production in the second half of 2022. According to the company’s customers, the company is supplying new fluorescent products to Shrek to supplement its aim platform. We believe that the cooperation between the company and Shrek continues to deepen. As we continue to analyze the instability of SECCO’s products in the supply chain, we will gradually increase the coverage of SECCO’s products. We estimate that with the increase of shipments in the second half of 2022, the company’s revenue will grow rapidly in 2022, with strong certainty.
The whole machine is approved and the growth and flowering board is opened. The company expanded to the downstream of the industrial chain. The self-developed white light endoscope machine obtained the product registration and production license in November 2021, and the fluorescent endoscope machine was approved in February 2022. On the one hand, the company promoted direct sales in Shandong with its own brand; On the other hand, cooperate with Sinopharm to promote with the help of brand and channel advantages. We believe that under the background of domestic substitution and new medical infrastructure, the demand for endoscopes in secondary hospitals is gradually increasing, and the domestic substitution rate is steadily increasing. The company is expected to base itself on Shandong and expand the whole country. With the advantages of its overall industrial chain, the quality advantage of exporting to Europe and America and the technical advantage of R & D and production integration, the company can realize the rapid promotion of the whole machine and open the growth ceiling.
The total assets have increased significantly. The revenue growth in 2022 is highly deterministic and the future growth is expected to continue
In 2021, the total assets of the company increased by 183.19% year-on-year. In addition to listing and financing, it benefited from the increase of inventories, projects under construction and fixed assets. (1) In 2021, the inventory was 66 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.3%, and the income in 2022 was highly uncertain. The company’s inventory in 2021 was 66 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.3%; In 2022q1, the company’s inventory was 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, mainly due to the increase of production orders and the increase of material inventory. We believe that with the gradual delivery confirmation of the company’s orders, the company’s revenue growth in 2022 is highly certain; (2) Industrial plant (phase II) project and machinery and equipment procurement increased, and mass production can be expected. We believe that with the completion of the construction of the company’s factories and the increase of equipment configuration, the company’s production capacity will be gradually released to drive future revenue growth. Thanks to the growth of orders, the expansion of the company’s product scale and the increase of machine sales, the company’s revenue is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth of 57.26%, 39.67% and 35.46% from 2022 to 2024.
During the whole machine promotion period, the cost rate will increase and the profitability may slow down
The expense rate has increased and the high profitability has continued. (1) The sales expense rate increased steadily. In 2021, due to the promotion of the whole machine, the sales expense rate of the company increased from 1.96% to 3.34%. We believe that the promotion of the whole machine of the company will continue from 2022 to 2024, and the sales expense rate is expected to increase steadily, giving a cost rate range of 4% – 6%; (2) The R & D expense rate and management expense rate are expected to be relatively stable. The company’s product R & D is advancing steadily. We believe that the company’s R & D expenses are expected to increase, but thanks to the growth of revenue scale, the expense rate is expected to maintain a stable state of 12%; The company’s new pipeline is advancing steadily, and there may be equity incentive in 2022. However, with the growth of income, the management expense rate from 2022 to 2024 is expected to maintain a range of 10% – 11%. Based on the above assumptions, we believe that the company’s profitability may slow down from 2022 to 2024, but based on the company’s strong industrial chain pricing ability, it will still maintain a high profit margin.
Profit forecast and valuation
Based on the above assumptions, we predict that the total operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 487 / 680 / 921 million respectively, with an increase of 57.26%, 39.67% and 35.46% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 / 225 / 294 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.35%, 32.55% and 30.64% respectively; The corresponding EPS is 1.88/2.50/3.26 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the risk of revenue fluctuation of Stryker; The risk that the whole machine sales are less than expected; Risk of covid-19 epidemic persistence; The risk of R & D falling short of expectations; Risk of policy changes
