\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report and the first quarterly report. In 2021, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit not attributable to parent company deducted was 92.72/682560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33.12% / + 13.00% / + 0.51%, of which Q4 achieved operating revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit not attributable to parent company deducted was 31.76/1.88/178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.06% / - 16.11% / - 17.88%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was RMB 2339 / 204 / 178 million, a year-on-year increase of + 24.16% / + 17.65% / + 13.99%.
Under the epidemic situation + high base, the growth rate of hot pot ingredients slowed down in the short term, and the performance of dish products was brilliant. In terms of products, 21q4 of flour and rice products / meat products / surimi products / dishes products increased by 21.7% / 9.9% / 13.6% / 91.5% year-on-year respectively, and 22q1 increased by 16.6% / 0.04% / 1.3% / 129.9% year-on-year respectively. The main reasons for the rapid growth of rice flour products and the decline of the growth rate of hot pot ingredients are as follows: 1) the epidemic promotes the consumption of C-end products, especially rice flour products, but it has a certain impact on the catering industry, including the main scenes of quick freezing hot pot ingredients such as hot pot shops and Malatang; 2) 21q1 Spring Festival is late, dealers have a long preparation period, and the catering industry is relatively less affected, resulting in a high base; 3) The outbreak of the epidemic has limited the logistics in many places, affected the production and sales of the company, and some products are out of stock. The continuous high growth of dish products is mainly due to the rapid growth of Mr. frozen products and the increase brought by the consolidation of XINHONGYE. The company's 22q1 contract debt was 643 million yuan, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of + 26.2% / + 144.5%, reflecting the strong willingness of dealers to replenish. Looking forward to the whole year, with the further control of the epidemic, the scientific epidemic prevention policy, the accelerated recovery of logistics and catering, and the high growth of the company's income.
The gross profit margin is under short-term pressure, and the scale effect + self production rate of dishes is gradually increased, which is expected to continue to improve profitability. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 / 22q1 was 22.1% / 24.2%, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.6 / - 2.3pct, mainly due to: 1) the cost of raw materials such as powder, oil, soybean protein and packaging materials increased greatly; 2) The epidemic affected logistics, resulting in an increase in freight; 3) The proportion of income from dish products increased, and the gross profit margin of Mr. frozen products and XINHONGYE was lower than that of the company's original main business. In 2021 / 22q1, the sales expense ratio was 9.2% / 10.3%, with a year-on-year ratio of -0.1 / - 0.7pct. The net interest rate of 2021 / 22q1 was 7.4% / 8.7%, respectively - 1.3 / - 0.5pct year-on-year. Looking forward to the future, with the decline of raw material costs, the return of logistics to normal, the increase of self-production rate of dish products, the further strengthening of scale effect, and the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The traditional business has been stagnant for a long time, and the prefabricated dishes are expected to increase rapidly with the help of channel advantages: the penetration rate of quick-frozen food at the B and C ends can be greatly improved, and the industry maintains a high growth rate. As a leading enterprise, the company actively promotes innovation, focuses on developing BC channels, improves the overall channel layout and channel sinking, and the market share increases steadily. In terms of prefabricated dishes, the company plans to acquire 40% equity of xinliuwu (another 30% equity if the agreement target is reached), further strengthen the layout in the crayfish industry and the supply guarantee in the upstream main raw material field, continue to maintain the common development of the three routes of "OEM + self production + M & a", and quickly seize the minds of consumers in the early stage of industry development.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's EPS in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 3.08, 3.78 and 4.83 respectively, and the six-month target price will be 132.3 yuan, corresponding to 35xpe in 2023.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The promotion of prefabricated dishes was less than expected
