\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 198 Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) )
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the performance report of the first quarter. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.58%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44.96%; In 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.33%; 22q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 37.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 49.07%.
Comments:
Q1 performance was in line with expectations, and the net interest rate increased significantly. In the whole year of 21 years, driven by the Dongzang series, the revenue grew brightly. The gross profit margin benefited from the product upgrading increased by 0.5pct to 67.5% year-on-year, and the net profit margin increased by + 2.6pct to 30.3% year-on-year. The main reason is that the cost investment is more efficient, in which the sales cost rate is – 2.4pct to 9.7% year-on-year, and the management cost rate is – 0.7pct to 4.3% year-on-year. The single Q4 revenue increased by double digits and the profit decreased slightly, mainly due to the impact of the rhythm of expense recognition. Combined with Q4 + Q1, the revenue and profit increased by more than 20% year-on-year. 22q1’s sales revenue was 1.615 billion yuan, which matched the revenue. The net cash flow from operations increased significantly by 264% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in sales revenue and the decrease in advance receipts by 130 million yuan month on month.
Dongzang series has a high growth and the dealer system is relatively stable. The growth rate of medium and high-grade Baijiu reached 44.7%, which was mainly driven by the Dongzang series. In 21 years, the proportion of Dongzang series is expected to have increased to about 40%. At present, dong6+9 is still the main type, and the jinyinxing series is expected to have double-digit growth in 21 years; The ton price of ordinary Baijiu has increased, which is expected to be related to the upgrading of internal consumption of medium – and low-end products. The growth rate of Dongzang in the province is faster, but the ton price inside and outside the province has increased, and the direction of product upgrading remains unchanged. After 19-20 years of rapid expansion, the current number of dealers has remained stable as a whole, but the average revenue of a single dealer has increased rapidly.
The Dongzang series started at the right time, and the growth momentum is expected to continue. In the short term, the epidemic broke out in many places in China from March to April, and the overall consumption of Baijiu in Anhui was partially affected. However, considering that the sales of welcome cars accounted for more than 70% of the sales in the three festivals, the Spring Festival had a good start, the collection and dynamic sales were excellent, and some terminals were replenished. At present, the overall consumption of Hui liquor is in the off-season. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic on the consumption of Baijiu on May Day and the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium and long term, the dong6 + 9 precision card is the mainstream price band of Huijiu, enjoying the dividend of this round of consumption upgrading of Huijiu. At the middle end of the price range, Baijiu competition focuses more on channels, and the profits of the cave Tibet channel are thicker. It is expected to accelerate the volume of cave Tibet, and the channel operation and control are strong under the playing method of high occupancy in small areas. Lu’an, Hefei and other regions have strong development momentum and strong consumption atmosphere in the core market. Other regions are expected to gradually replicate it, leading the company’s performance to maintain high growth for 3-5 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the Dongzang series started at the right time, the product upgrading trend remained unchanged, and the performance was high and the growth could be expected. We expect that the earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.23 yuan, 2.85 yuan and 3.68 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk factors: macroeconomic uncertainty risk, repeated epidemic situation and intensified competition in the province.
