\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 63 Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) )
Event:
The company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved a revenue of 3.312 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 58.92%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 48.96%. In the first quarter of the year, the revenue reached 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 78.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 164 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.97%, basically in line with expectations.
Comments:
Inverter shipments increased sharply and are expected to have crossed the low profit point
The company sold 705300 inverters in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 46%, the revenue of photovoltaic grid connected inverter increased by 43% and the revenue of energy storage inverter increased by 371%. Affected by the price rise of raw materials in 21 years, the gross profit margin of inverter industry generally declined, and the overall gross profit margin of the company decreased by 3.11pct to 28.71% compared with 20 years; However, the gross profit margin of 21q4 and 22q1 showed an upward trend month on month. At the same time, the inventory of 22q1 increased by 129% year-on-year, and the raw material reserve was sufficient. We believe that the company has crossed the low profit point of this round, and its profitability will continue to improve in the future.
The power station business is progressing smoothly and continues to contribute high-quality cash flow
By the end of the 21st century, the company had put 177 distributed photovoltaic power stations into operation, with a total installed capacity of about 177.76mw and a revenue of 86.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127%. The company issued convertible bonds in February 22 and continued to build 32 distributed photovoltaic power stations. It is expected that all of them will be completed and put into operation by the end of 22. According to the prospectus of the company’s convertible bonds, after the project is completed, it can increase the average annual profit by about 40.18 million yuan and continue to contribute high-quality cash flow.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
22q1 company’s contractual liabilities increased by 48% year on year, with sufficient orders on hand. We maintain the profit forecast of the company. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 20222023 will be 6 / 8.4 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.9/1.25 billion yuan respectively. At the same time, the profit forecast for 24 years will be 11.5 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.01 billion yuan, and EPS will be 3.6/5.1/8.1 yuan respectively, corresponding to 47 / 33 / 21 times of PE. Due to the current downward valuation of comparable companies, We gave the company 55 times PE in 22 years and the target price was 197.45 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected; International trade protection risk; The price of raw materials has risen.
