\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 100 Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) )
Matters:
The annual report disclosed that the parent company realized a net profit of + 19.41 billion yuan in 2029 (a year-on-year increase of + 2.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.81 billion yuan). The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 7.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the company realized a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan (year-on-year – 22.97%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 528 million yuan (year-on-year – 32.56%).
Ping An View:
In 2021, the performance growth rate was better than that of the industry, and the performance of hydraulic pump and valve was brilliant. 1) Revenue side: in 2021, the company’s revenue from hydraulic cylinders, hydraulic pumps and valves, hydraulic systems, accessories and castings was RMB 5.187 billion (year-on-year + 15.34%), RMB 3.236 billion (+ 38.37%), RMB 196 million (+ 25.07%) and RMB 677 million (- 19.96%). In 2021, the sales volume of excavators from 25 main engine plants included in the statistics reached 342800 units, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The revenue growth rate of the company’s oil cylinder, pump valve and system products is better than that of the industry. Among them, the growth rate of hydraulic pump valve is the highest with the further increase of market share; The decline in the revenue of accessories and castings is mainly due to the decline in the sales of after-sales accessories. 2) Gross profit margin: in 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 44.01%, basically unchanged year-on-year. 3) In terms of expense rate, the company’s four expense rate reached 11.43% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1.66 PCT, mainly because the R & D expense rate increased by 2.90 PCT year-on-year. In 2021, the company invested 636 million yuan in R & D, a year-on-year increase of 106%.
The performance in 2022 is expected to be low in the first place and high in the second. It mainly depends on the three support points of non-standard, export and electrification. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s revenue and profit declined, the revenue was mainly affected by downstream demand, and the gross profit margin was affected by price reduction and scale effect. The company plans to achieve year-on-year flat operating revenue in 2022. At present, the market expectation of excavator sales in 2022 is not clear. We believe that the company’s performance in 2022 is expected to be low before and high after. It mainly depends on three supporting points: 1) non-standard business: high-altitude operation platform, shield machine, new energy equipment and other market scenes in 2022 are of high bearing, and non-standard oil cylinder and other businesses are expected to support the company’s performance growth.
2) export growth: in 2021, the growth rates of the company’s Chinese sales and foreign sales were 16.61% and 33.39% respectively. With the gradual improvement of the overseas epidemic situation and the strong recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment in many overseas countries, the export of construction machinery host products in 2022 is expected, and the growth of the company’s product export is strongly supported. 3) New opportunities for electrification trend: at present, China’s construction machinery industry is ushering in the great wave of electrification, and the company actively develops relevant electric controls
Investment suggestion: in view of the increasing downward pressure on the industry cycle, we lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.720 billion yuan, 3.062 billion yuan and 3.448 billion yuan respectively from 2022 to 2024 (the value before 20222023 is 3.248 billion yuan and 3.810 billion yuan respectively), and the P / E ratio corresponding to the current stock price will be 20 times, 18 times and 16 times respectively. The company is a global leader in hydraulic parts, and we maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the demand of construction machinery industry is declining. As the company’s main product, excavator cylinder is closely related to the downstream construction machinery industry. If the demand for construction machinery decreases significantly, the company’s excavator business will decline accordingly. 2) The development of electrification business was less than expected. If the development of new businesses such as electrification of the company is less than expected, the growth rate of overall performance will slow down. 3) Overseas expansion is less than expected risk. If the company’s overseas market expansion is less than expected, it will affect the performance growth. 4) Epidemic impact risk. If the global epidemic repeats and affects the production and delivery of the company, it will have a negative impact on the performance.
