\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 9.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In 2022, Q1 company achieved a revenue of 2.339 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 204 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%.
Comments:
Staple food and cuisine products achieved high growth, and the rising cost caused the decline of gross profit
From the revenue side, in 2021, the revenue of the company’s noodle rice / meat / surimi / dish products increased by 23.60% / 19.16% / 23.07% / 112.41% respectively. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s noodle rice and dish products also achieved a high growth rate of 16.59% / 129.88%, and the penetration rate of staple food and dish quick-frozen food was further improved driven by the epidemic. From the cost side, except for meat products, the gross profit of the other three categories fell by more than 3%, mainly due to the increase of employee wage cost, technical transformation of manufacturing plant and freight. In terms of channels, in 2021, dealers / supermarkets / direct sales / e-commerce achieved revenue growth of 31.57% / 9.53% / 173.41% / 43.36% respectively, and 738 new dealers were added in the whole year.
Strategic stake in xinliuwu and overweight the layout of upstream raw materials
On the 25th, the company decided to acquire 70% equity of Hubei xinliuwu food group in two steps. The acquired company is mainly engaged in the production of silver carp and catfish surimi, as well as the preliminary processing and deep processing of crayfish. This is the acquisition of upstream aquaculture by Anji again after XINHONGYE, which is intended to further consolidate the control of surimi and crayfish.
Profit forecast and investment rating
From March to April, the company has faced the pressure of shutdown and blockade in East China, but at the same time, the epidemic has also accelerated the penetration of Anjing rice flour products and large prefabricated dishes at the C-end. We believe that the long-term growth path of the company is clear and the leading position will be consolidated in the repeated epidemic. We raised the revenue forecast for 20222023 to 11.943/15.089 billion yuan (the original value was 11.20/13.724 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 28.8% / 26.35%; Taking into account the continuous increase in the volatility of raw materials and the increase in performance incentives, we adjusted the net profit from 2022 to 2023 to RMB 952 / 1322 million (the original value was RMB 1078 / 1336 million), gave the revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 to RMB 18972 million and RMB 1784 million respectively, the corresponding EPS to RMB 3.25/4.51/6.08 respectively, 35 / 25 / 19 times the current share price PE respectively, adjusted the target price to RMB 162.5, 50 times the PE in 22 years, and maintained the “buy” rating.
