\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
The company issued 2021 annual report and 2022 first quarter report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 15.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.93%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.323 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.78%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 2.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.59%. In Q4 single quarter, the revenue was 3.404 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.72%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 320 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.92%, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was 608 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.49%. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 4.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 623 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.49%.
The company’s performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and the European market performed well. The year-on-year growth rates of the company’s annual revenue, net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits in 2021 were 25.93%, 34.78% and 30.59% respectively, which were in line with market expectations as a whole. The growth difference between the net profit attributable to the parent company and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is mainly due to the non recurring profit and loss of -407 million after tax in 2020. In terms of regions, the company’s revenue in China was 13.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%, the endogenous growth rate after deducting consolidated hospitals was about 24%, and the overseas revenue was 1.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.98%. Among them, the European region overcame the impact of the epidemic and achieved an income of 1.318 billion yuan, a significant increase of 39.34% year-on-year, highlighting the development potential of the overseas market. From the perspective of business segmentation, the refractive and optometric businesses with relatively high gross continue to maintain a high growth rate and further increase their proportion. From the perspective of specific hospitals, the income side of hospitals with comparable data is gradually reduced by the impact of the epidemic, and the increase of overall net interest rate promotes the rapid growth of profits.
The company maintained steady and rapid growth in the first quarter of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 4.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 623 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.49%. In March this year, the company was greatly disturbed by the epidemic, and continued to maintain a high growth trend.
The scale of M & A fund expanded, and the management increased its holdings to demonstrate confidence. The company issued announcements in November 2021 and January 2022 respectively to invest in Suzhou Liangshi Yuanzhu equity investment partnership (limited partnership) and Hunan Liangshi Tongxing medical industry management partnership (limited partnership), and invest and manage ophthalmic hospitals, ophthalmic outpatient departments, ophthalmic upstream enterprises and ophthalmic related industries through its industrial funds, so as to reserve more high-quality M & A targets for the company’s future development. In January 2022, the company announced that a number of directors and senior managers would increase their holdings of the company’s shares, and the lock-in period for the increased holdings of shares was 6 months, which fully demonstrated the confidence of the company’s management in the future development prospects of the company.
Re combing the investment logic: China will blossom abroad and become a world-class ophthalmic hospital. Aier’s investment value lies in the scarcity and allocation value brought by stable and rapid growth, which comes from Aier’s internationalization strategy and expanding Chinese business in the new decade:
Internationalization strategy: the company has leading overseas ophthalmic institutions such as Hong Kong Asia Medical, Mingwang Ophthalmic Center of the United States, European CB group and Southeast Asia ISEC healthcare Ltd. by the end of 2021, the company’s overseas ophthalmic medical institution network includes 93 in Europe, 12 in Southeast Asia and 1 in the United States. On the one hand, the implementation of the company’s internationalization strategy will help to deeply integrate the international advanced medical service concept and the most cutting-edge technical system, and help further improve China’s brand academically and technically. On the other hand, Southeast Asia and other regions are also expected to become the potential growth space of the company in the future.
China business continues to expand: by the end of 2021, the company’s Chinese hospital and clinic network includes 610 in China and 7 in Hong Kong, China. At present, the company has basically covered all provincial capital cities and prefecture level cities. In the future, the company will continue to improve the breadth, depth and density of the national medical network, constantly improve the vertical hierarchical chain network system in all provinces and regions, and quickly promote the construction of medical network focusing on prefectures, counties and cities. At the same time, the company will gradually improve the horizontal intra city hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system, and accelerate the construction of multiple hospitals in one city in the provincial capital city The urban hierarchical diagnosis and treatment network construction of optometry outpatient department (clinic) and love eye e station has formed the layout of “horizontal and vertical network” in many provinces and regions, further improved the efficiency and sharing degree of resource allocation in the region, and formed their own medical union system.
Profit forecast. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.989 billion, 3.829 billion and 4.909 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, 28.1% and 28.2%, corresponding to PE of 61x, 47x and 37x. The company is a core asset of medicine, with the characteristics of high ceiling and high certainty, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: medical insurance cost control exceeded expectations; Deterioration of competition pattern; A malignant medical accident occurred.
