\u3000\u30003 Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) 00253)
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 2.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%. In 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 31.763 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.7%.
The epidemic affected the project acceptance, the internet medical performance was brilliant, and many factors put pressure on profits. 1) Medical and health information business: in 2021, the revenue was 2.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; Among them, the revenue from software sales and technical services was 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%. Affected by the epidemic, the project acceptance and payment collection have lagged behind, and the growth rate of the company's medical and health information business has slowed down compared with the past few years. However, the amount of newly signed contracts and orders of the company increased by more than 25% year-on-year in 2021, which has been significantly improved compared with 2020; Among them, there are 36 tens of millions of projects. Although the number has decreased, the amount of contract orders has increased by about 16% year-on-year. Some deferred revenue will be concentrated in the follow-up. 2) Internet medical business: in 2021, the revenue reached 440 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 191.6%, and the proportion of revenue increased to 16.0%. The company's profit performance in 2021 was lower than expected. In addition to the delayed progress of acceptance and payment collection caused by the epidemic, it was mainly due to the negative drag of many factors such as the increased loss of the company's Internet innovation business and the increase of impairment loss. Among them, the cumulative number of service people of Nari health platform has exceeded 300 million, the number of medical institutions has exceeded 7400, the proportion of operating business income has increased significantly, and the subsequent profitability is expected to improve; After the consolidation of key technology, the performance of the company's comprehensive gross profit margin has been affected. However, ringnex platform has been connected to more than 200 medical institutions and more than 80000 pharmacies to actively open up the operation systems of medicine, medicine, health and insurance inside and outside the hospital. It is expected to reduce the one-time impact with strategic investment and franchisee expenses and improve the profit performance. In addition, the company's provision for impairment losses reached 250 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 81.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the lengthening of downstream payment collection progress, and the company's provision proportion is higher than that of peers in the industry; With reference to the past payment collection of the company and the industry, the actual proportion of bad debts is low, and most of the accrued impairment is expected to be reversed.
The R & D and implementation of venex have made good progress, and the "1 + X" strategy has been upgraded. In 2021, venex products have been launched in more than 220 hospitals across the country, covering 25 provinces. Among them, Shanghai Punan hospital launched the winex13 core systems for only 40 days, which has become a successful case of rapid deployment and a benchmark for subsequent comprehensive deployment and rapid switching. In 2022, the company will upgrade the two wheel drive to the "1 + X" strategy, that is, to realize the digitization of medical and health service resources based on the unified medium platform's wiex series products, and build x digital health application scenarios in the digital space, such as digital products, data service innovation, Internet hospital and medical insurance linkage, so as to continuously enrich the medical digital ecology.
Downstream demand is still rigid, and Q1 performs better. In 2021, the state successively issued a number of medical and medical insurance informatization related policies, many of which put forward quantitative rating objectives for the construction of relevant modules such as electronic medical record, intelligent management and intelligent service. The project planning and bidding of downstream medical institutions are expected to be launched in 2022. We believe that although the recent epidemic situation in China has repeatedly affected the implementation and delivery progress of the project, there is still rigid demand in the downstream. From the perspective of prolonging the time dimension, the prosperity of the industry may be maintained. In Q1 2022, the amount of newly signed contracts and orders of the company's medical and health information business increased by more than 35% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of more than 25% in 2021; Among them, there are 15 ten million level projects (including 6 wiex projects), compared with 2 in the same period of last year, and the quantity and amount have increased significantly year-on-year; The cash received from selling goods and providing labor services increased by about 37% year-on-year. If the collection impact caused by the customer's deferred payment commitment document in the fourth quarter of 2021 is about 40 million yuan, it will increase by about 26% year-on-year.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.21 yuan, 0.27 yuan and 0.33 yuan respectively. With the continuous implementation of policies, the industry has ushered in an inflection point of prosperity, and the construction of medical insurance informatization is expected to usher in a new round of investment cycle; The company is the first tier manufacturer of comprehensive solutions for medical informatization in China. The technology and implementation process of venex are leading. The expansion of Internet Medical is smooth and the loss is expected to gradually narrow. Although the epidemic puts a test on collection and delivery, the relevant demand is only delayed rather than weakened. The company has sufficient orders on hand and is expected to continue to benefit. We are optimistic about the long-term development potential of the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as strong as expected, the endogenous reform power of the hospital is insufficient, the epidemic repeatedly affects the delivery, and the industry competition intensifies.
