\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 984 Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) )
Core summary
We believe that the key to the rise of the tire industry lies in product power, channel power and brand power. Product power is the key. In order to become a brand, we must surpass the existing brand in product power. Just being close to it cannot form a brand Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) through deep cultivation of intelligent manufacturing, the company has created low-cost and high-quality tires, so the company dares to set up a production base in Spain with high labor cost. Intelligent manufacturing is expected to bring revolutionary changes to the tire industry. By improving the utilization rate of devices, reducing labor costs, reducing logistics consumption, improving product uniformity and stability, improving product quality and product phase, we can make both low cost and high quality. In terms of intelligent manufacturing, the company has taken the lead in the world. The company is positioned at the high-end, holds high and strives for supporting high-end models. Once the supporting is successful, the company is expected to explore a new way for the rise of high-end fields in the tire industry.
The company’s tire production capacity is 22 million semi steel radial tires / year. In the future, the intelligent transformation of Qingdao factory is expected to increase the production capacity of 2.5 million semi steel tires. The second phase of the project with an annual output of 6 million high-performance semi steel radial tires and 2 million high-performance all steel radial tires in Thailand has been basically completed, and the project with an annual output of 12 million high-performance passenger cars and light truck radial tires in Spain is in the stage of feasibility demonstration and financing.
Intelligent manufacturing creates a new road to rise. The company’s intelligent manufacturing level has a demonstration effect in the industry. From five main modules: intelligent central control system, intelligent production execution system, intelligent warehousing and logistics system, intelligent detection and scanning system and intelligent dispatching and early warning system, the company has built a smart factory Internet of things system covering R & D and design, production, manufacturing and detection, warehousing and information management. Intelligent manufacturing application can effectively improve equipment utilization and capacity utilization, greatly improve production efficiency, reduce investment amount and production cost, greatly reduce the number of workers, reduce logistics consumption, reduce manual intervention in the production process, improve product uniformity and stability, and improve product quality and appearance.
With the rapid rise of domestic tires, the key to the next step is high-end breakthrough. The market share of overseas giants shows a long-term downward trend, and the proportion of tire enterprises in Chinese Mainland in the world continues to increase; In the future, the medium and low-end market will be saturated, and the high-end market is the key.
The company’s aviation tire is expected to usher in a big breakthrough. At present, the global aviation tire business is monopolized by a few enterprises. At present, the company has completed some aviation enterprise certification, and is under construction with an annual output of 80000 aviation tires (including 50000 retreaded tires). At present, the construction progress is 94%, and is expected to usher in leapfrog development in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company is the leader of Intelligent Manufacturing in tire industry. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.310 billion, RMB 1.804 billion and RMB 2.130 billion respectively, corresponding to 12, 9 and 8 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: intelligent manufacturing technology is imitated; The progress of Spanish base is lower than expected; Sea freight prices remain high; Rising prices of raw materials; The risk that the production of aviation tire project is less than expected; The progress of original matching tire project is less than expected; Environmental protection and safety production risks; Increased risk of competition in the same industry; The company and Pirelli are not completely comparable, and the relevant data are for reference only.
