\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) released the results of 2021 and 22q1, with an operating revenue of 15.356 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. 22q1 operating revenue was 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%.
Key points supporting rating
Mango TV revenue maintained high growth in 2021, and the epidemic affected content production and broadcasting. The overlapping epidemic of entertainment content supervision has affected the production progress and scheduling of content, and the launch of some key variety shows of mango TV has been delayed, resulting in a year-on-year decline in the revenue and profit of the company in the second half of 2021 and 22q1. In 2021, mango TV's Internet video business revenue was 11.261 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.28%, of which advertising revenue increased by 32% year-on-year; The business of operators increased by 27% year-on-year; Member income increased by 13% year-on-year, and the number of effective members reached 50.4 million by the end of 2021, an increase of 40% year-on-year, reaching the growth target.
Concentrate resources, focus on the development of mango TV, and continue to layout new tracks derived from IP. The company adjusted the three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and mango mutual entertainment into mango TV subsidiaries, focusing on self-made monsoon theater, variety innovation and live entertainment respectively. Therefore, the entertainment content production revenue in 2021 was 1.877 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. In 2021, the business revenue of content e-commerce was 2.157 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The peak value of dau of e-commerce platform "Xiaomang" reached 1.26 million in 2021, reaching the previous goal. Offline live entertainment business continues to build brands and extend the industrial chain by relying on variety pop IP.
Content productivity has been continuously strengthened, and a number of key variety shows and dramas will be launched one after another. By the end of 2021, mango TV has 26 self-made entertainment teams, 29 film and television production teams and 34 strategic studios, and the content production capacity has been continuously strengthened. According to Yunhe data, mango TV occupied four seats in the top 10 Online variety shows in March, maintaining the advantage of self-made variety shows. The key variety shows to be broadcast in Q2 include "sound never stops", "riding the wind and breaking the waves 3" and so on. Monsoon theater will also launch dramas with a wider range of themes. We expect that from Q2, the growth rate of advertising revenue will gradually recover, and the growth of members will also be driven by the launch of high-quality content. The target number of mango TV members in 2022 is 65 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 30%.
Valuation
We expect the net profit of 2022 / 23 / 24 to be RMB 2.415/29.38/3.579 billion, EPS to be RMB 1.29/1.57/1.91, corresponding to 22 / 18 / 15 times of PE Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) has strong competitive advantages in self-made system, investment attraction strength and regulatory grasp, and maintains the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The growth of members is less than expected; Advertising is lower than expected; Supervision exceeds expectations; Industry competition intensifies.
