\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, an increase of 43.6% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.208 billion yuan, an increase of 127.5% at the same time; Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 16.791 billion yuan, an increase of 34.09% and a decrease of 16.62% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 721.92% and a month on month decrease of 24.03%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue reached 24.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.49% and a month on month increase of 47.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.194 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 513.01% and a month on month increase of 129.52%. The performance in the first quarter was the upper limit of the forecast, slightly exceeding market expectations. In 2021, the gross profit margin was 27.68%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.59 PCT; in 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 34.11%, with a year-on-year increase of 13.36 PCT and a month on month increase of 0.57 PCT; In 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 12.93%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.77pct. In 2022q1, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 21.04%, with a year-on-year increase of 13.06pct and a month on month increase of 7.56pct.
The volume and profit of silicon materials increased both, and the expansion of production was accelerated: in 2021, the company realized the sales volume of silicon materials of 107700 tons, an increase of 24.3% at the same time, realized the revenue of 16.78 billion yuan, the unit price of tax deduction was about 156000 yuan / ton, and the net profit per ton was about 74000 yuan / ton. In 2022q1, we expect the overall shipment to be 48000 tons, including 41000 tons of equity shipment, an increase of 60% +. The average tax deduction price in 2022q1 is about 210000 yuan / ton, and the estimated net profit per ton is about 120000 yuan / ton, a record high. The company’s shipment target in 2022 is 200000 tons (we expect the equity to be 160000 ~ 170000 tons). Assuming that the annual average price including tax of silicon material is 180000 ~ 19000 yuan and the net profit per ton is 85000 ~ 95000 yuan, we expect the annual silicon material business profit to reach 13.5-16 billion yuan. The capacity of silicon material continues to expand. At present, the capacity is 180000 tons and the capacity under construction is 170000 tons. We expect that Baotou phase II 50000 tons will be put into operation in 2022 and Leshan phase III 120000 tons will be put into operation in 2023. Leshan phase III project is the company’s first project with a single scale of 100000 tons, which will further reduce costs.
Under the multi pronged approach of battery technology, the profit recovery is obvious: in 2021, the sales volume of batteries and components of the company was 34.93gw, increased by 57.6% at the same time, the gross profit margin of single crystal cells was 8.3%, decreased by 8.5pct at the same time, the non silicon cost was reduced to 0.18 yuan / W, decreased by 11% at the same time, and the profit per Watt was 1 ~ 2 points / W. The company’s 2022q1 battery capacity is 45gw, of which the large size accounts for more than 70%. In 2022, the profit will be repaired under the improvement of supply and demand. At present, we expect the company to break even in small size, and the large size can reach 4 points. The annual average profit of our battery business is expected to be about 40.3 billion, corresponding to the annual profit of our battery business. The company has made in-depth layout of various technical routes. At present, it has the capacity of 1.4gwhjt and 1gwtopcon. We expect the total capacity of batteries to reach 80-100gw in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the fact that the price of silicon material continues to exceed the market expectation, we raise the profit forecast for 2022. We expect the net profit forecast for 222024 to be 15.535125.50/13.251 billion yuan (the previous value was 14.002/12.588 billion yuan in 2022 / 23), a year-on-year increase of + 89% / – 19% / 6%, corresponding to 10.19/12.61/11.95 times of PE in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: intensified competition, unexpected changes in photovoltaic policies, etc.
