\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 14 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.906 billion yuan, an increase of 75.89% at the same time, which was in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company's revenue was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.89%; It is located in the median value of performance forecast, which is in line with market expectations. Among them, in 2021, SIMORE contributed a net profit of RMB 1.673 billion in investment income, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Department was RMB 1.233 billion, an increase of about 30% at the same time. The gross profit margin in 21 years was 21.57%, with a year-on-year increase of -7.44pct; The net interest rate was 18.64%, a year-on-year decrease of -1.96 PCT, of which the net interest rate of the headquarters was 7.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 3 PCT.
Power battery: the revenue exceeds 10 billion yuan for the first time, and is expected to continue to double in 22-23 years. In 2021, the company's power battery business achieved a revenue of 10.007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.25%. We expect the company to ship nearly 13 GWH of power storage batteries in 2021, doubling year-on-year growth; Among them, the shipment of Q4 power energy storage battery is 4gwh +, with a ring increase of about 15%. The shipment in 22 years is expected to reach 26-30gwh, which will continue to double. In terms of profitability, we expect that the average price of power battery in 21 years is nearly 0.9 yuan / wh (including tax), which is flat month on month, with a gross profit margin of about 18%, a year-on-year decrease of 5-6pct.
Firm the technical route of square iron lithium + Ternary big cylinder, accelerate the integration of supply chain and the development of new customers, and the rise of the leader of second-line power battery. The company has built 20gwh large cylindrical battery production line and 16gwh square lithium iron battery production line in Jingmen, superimposing the 153gwh capacity planning of Jingmen, the 50gwh capacity planned in Chengdu, the 10gwh soft package capacity built in Huizhou, and the 20gwh capacity jointly invested with Linyang. The company's capacity planning will exceed 260gwh by 2025, and the capacity expansion will accelerate. The company firmly adheres to the technical route of square iron lithium + Ternary large cylinder and takes the lead in the layout of large cylinder batteries in China. The initial 20gwh capacity will be gradually completed in 2022. We expect to contribute 10gwh shipments in 2023.
SIMORE's short-term growth slowed down, and overweight R & D remained competitive. In 21 years, the adjusted net profit of SIMORE was 5.443 billion yuan (including listing expenses, changes in fair value, etc.), with a year-on-year increase of 39.82%; After deducting 156 million yuan of equity incentive expenses, the actual report performance was 5.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.29%, and contributed 1.67 billion yuan of investment income to the company in the whole year. Affected by China's policies, epidemic situation and the company's increased R & D investment, the performance of SIMORE forecast 22q1 is expected to be 550 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55%. We revised the performance of SIMORE in the next 22 years to 4.4 billion yuan. We expect to contribute 1.4 billion yuan of investment income to the company, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 16%.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the downward revision of SIMORE's performance and the periodic impact of the price rise of lithium battery raw materials on the company's profitability, our downward revision of the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 2.8/5/7 billion yuan (4.735/7.581 billion yuan in the original forecast from 2022 to 2023), with a year-on-year increase of - 3% / 79% / 40%, and the corresponding PE is 38x / 21x / 15x. Considering the obvious improvement of the company's profit in 23 years, we give a certain valuation premium, give 55 times PE in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 81.4 yuan, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the layout of electric vehicle sales is expected, and the price of upstream raw materials fluctuates sharply.
