\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 561 Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) )
Event: on the evening of April 25, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. The annual revenue of 2021 was 5.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -555 million yuan, the loss increased by 65.91% over the same period of the previous year, the net profit deducted was -788 million yuan, the loss increased by 46.15% over the same period of the previous year, and the basic earnings per share was -0.82 yuan / share. In 2022q1, the revenue was 659 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.52%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -481 million yuan, and the loss decreased by 10.41% compared with the same period of the previous year. According to the previous forecast, the revenue and profit in 2021 are 5.855 / – 104 billion yuan respectively, and the profit is lower than expected.
Comments:
Revenue maintained high growth, and the expense rate decreased year-on-year
In 2021, the company’s network security product revenue was 3.859 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.74%, accounting for 66.42% of revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.39 PCT; The network security service revenue was 705 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, accounting for 12.14% of the operating revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.39 PCT; Hardware and other revenue was 1.217 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.53%, accounting for 20.95% and a year-on-year increase of 4.47 PCT. The overall gross profit margin was 60.01%, which was increased for four consecutive years, and the gross profit margin of safety products was 77.02%, an increase of 4.78pct year-on-year. The R & D expense rate, sales expense rate and management expense rate decreased by 1.38/2.90/2.21 PCT respectively.
The advantages of the new track are obvious, and the market share remains ahead
In 2021, the revenue of new track products accounted for more than 70% of the revenue of security products and services, of which the revenue growth rate of data security and privacy protection products exceeded 50%; The overall revenue of situation awareness products was nearly 1.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%; The revenue of terminal security products exceeded 800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%; The company’s terminal security products have achieved more than 50 million commercial deployment in government and enterprise customers, and the market share has ranked first in China for four consecutive years.
Profit forecast and valuation
Taking into account the intensified competition in the industry, the impact of the epidemic and the changes in the valuation of the sector, we adjusted the revenue in 202223 to 8.109/10.769 billion yuan (original value: 8.264 billion yuan and 11.647 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company to 35 / 256 million yuan (original value: 261 / 589 million yuan), and increased the 24-year profit forecast revenue to 14.054 billion yuan, the net profit to 638 million yuan, EPS to 0.05/0.38/0.94 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE to 903x / 122x / 49x respectively. Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
Repeated outbreaks; The expenditure of downstream customers does not meet expectations; Network security competition intensifies.
