\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 13 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) )
Event: the company announced the financial report of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022: the revenue in 2021 was 15.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%; In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 3.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.39%.
The delay in the scheduling of popular variety shows affects the revenue in the first quarter: due to the repeated impact of covid-19 epidemic on the content production progress, the scheduling of key variety shows of mango TV in the first quarter is delayed. According to the company's content production and scheduling planning, key variety shows and film and television dramas such as "sound never stops", "riding the wind and waves 3" will be launched in the second quarter. Among them, the leading part and the first issue of "sound without rest" were launched on Mango TV in April. According to the professional app of cat's eye, the cumulative broadcast volume of the program exceeded 100 million, reaching the top of the popularity list of cat's eye variety in the whole network. The popular variety show companies are expected to return to normal after the investment promotion.
The number of members still maintained a high growth, and the ARPU value needs to be improved: in 2021, the member income was 3.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, and the number of effective members at the end of the year reached 50.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%. The ARPU value was 85.2 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%, mainly because mango TV platform is still in the stage of accumulating high-quality customers, and the member recharge promotion is strong. As Tencent video and iqiyi have started the process of increasing the price of membership fees, the ARPU value of mango TV members is still expected to increase in the future.
The extension of the new track is expected to bring new growth points to the company: in terms of e-commerce, Xiaomang app recommends domestic products to young users through high-quality content, and constructs a new e-commerce model centered on "content + community + e-commerce", with a daily peak of 1.26 million. The company lays out the offline live entertainment track, extends IP from online to offline by relying on high-quality contents such as "big detective" and "big escape from the secret room", creates a new brand m-city, and is committed to building an offline live entertainment complex. The emerging track is expected to bring new growth points other than video content to the company.
Investment suggestion and rating: we expect that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.516 billion, 2.996 billion and 3.445 billion from 2022 to 2024. The current share price corresponds to 21 times, 18 times and 15 times of PE respectively. Based on the company's unique advantages in the field of long video, maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk tip: brain drain of core production; The viewing effect of integrated generation n product update iteration did not meet the expectation; The introduction and activity of e-commerce app users are lower than expected
