\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 176 China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) )
The performance increased month on month, slightly exceeding expectations. 22q1 company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non profits of 51.3 / 18.4 / 1.44 billion respectively, yoy + 28.4% / 72.7% / 36.1%, and net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non profits of + 6.5% / 19.8% month on month. The net profit attributable to the parent company is about 390 million higher than the non net profit deducted. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase of non recurring profits and losses caused by the sale of some precious metals. Considering that the price of rhodium powder remains at a high level, it is not ruled out that the company will continue to sell precious metals to increase profits.
Roving boom continued, overseas boom and prices exceeded expectations. We estimate that the roving sales volume of 22q1 company is about 530000 tons, yoy-3.6%. We judge that it is mainly due to the Chinese customers’ advance part of the demand of 22q1 to 21q4 (roving sales volume is about 670000 tons) due to the price rise in 22 years. It is estimated that the average price / ton profit of 22q1 roving continues to increase month on month. We judge that it is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of the company’s exports, and the average price of export products is higher. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the export demand continued to rise. In March 22, China’s export volume of glass fiber and products was about 210000 tons, the highest level since statistics were available; In addition, under the booming overseas demand / rising natural gas cost, the price of overseas products is much higher than that of China. In March 22, the average export price of glass fiber and products was about 10700 yuan / ton. Affected by the sharp rise in energy (natural gas, etc.), we estimate that the manufacturing cost of 22q1 company’s ton roving still increases, but the overall impact is limited. Under the high energy cost, the cost side is expected to remain under pressure in 22 years. However, with the further development of the company’s low-cost intelligent manufacturing production line and the active promotion of the secondary cold repair technology transformation of the production line, the pressure on the cost side is generally controllable.
The price of electronic cloth has reached the bottom range, and the cost advantage of the company is prominent. We estimate that the sales volume of electronic cloth of 22q1 company is 115 million meters, yoy + 15%. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of electronic cloth has dropped from a high of 8-9 yuan / m to 3.4 yuan / M (data on April 25). We expect that at present, it may be difficult for other manufacturers except the company to make profits, and the price of electronic cloth has entered the bottom range, with limited downward space. The company announced that according to the market situation and the operation of the original production line, it plans to carry out cold repair and technical transformation for the production line with an annual output of 30000 tons of electronic yarn (supporting 100 million meters of electronic cloth). After the technical transformation is completed, the production capacity of the electronic yarn production line will be increased to 50000 tons (supporting 160 million meters of electronic cloth), and the cost is expected to be further reduced. At the same time, the company plans to shut down the production line with an annual output of 15000 tons of electronic yarn (supporting 50 million meters of electronic cloth). Under the condition that the supply side is expected to shrink periodically and the demand is good, we judge that the price of electronic cloth is expected to gradually pick up.
The expansion of production capacity was accelerated and the product structure was continuously optimized. The company announced that it plans to carry out cold repair and technical transformation on 120000 tons of coarse yarn in Tongxiang, and the production capacity will be increased to 200000 tons after completion. In addition, the company’s production capacity of 100000 tons of electronic yarn / 120000 tons of roving in Egypt / 150000 tons of roving in Chengdu / 200000 tons of roving in Jiujiang is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22q2 / 22 / 23h1 / 23 respectively. We estimate that the high-end products (wind power / thermoplastic / electronic yarn, etc.) of 22q1 company account for more than 80%. With the pull of downstream demand and the company’s active adjustment of capacity structure, it is expected that the product structure is expected to be continuously optimized and the anti cyclical / profitability is expected to be continuously enhanced.
Investment suggestion: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 6.1/64/6.7 billion yuan (maintaining the original profit forecast), corresponding to the current share price PE of 9.4 / 8.9 / 8.5 times. Considering the continuation of roving boom, the price of electronic cloth is expected to gradually pick up, the cost advantage of the company is prominent, the capacity expansion is accelerated, the product structure is continuously optimized, and the “overweight” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; The new production capacity of small enterprises exceeded expectations; The price of medium and high-end products fell more than expected.
