\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Key investment points
Event: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the first quarter report of 2022, and the company realized an operating revenue of 41.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.84% and a month on month increase of 5.23%.
Comments:
The volume and price of main business kept increasing, the cost rose, and the profit fell year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the production and sales volume of polyurethane sector of the company were 101 / 950000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 5.43% / 2.77%. In terms of MDI, according to wind, the average unit price of pure MDI in China in the first quarter was 22647 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 6.26%; The average unit price of aggregate MDI was 20311 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 4.91%. Affected by the rain and snow weather and the spread of the epidemic, the downstream demand side is not as good as in previous years, and the overall demand side is restrained. Meanwhile, the average price of pure benzene and coal in the first quarter was 7947 / 1104 yuan / ton, up 42.83% / 70% year-on-year. The comprehensive price difference of MDI was 14685 yuan / ton, down 19.34% year-on-year, and the profit narrowed. In terms of TDI, according to wind, the average unit price of TDI in China in the first quarter was 18739 yuan / ton, up 26.61% year-on-year. The rise of TDI price is mainly affected by the abnormality of devices such as Yantai Juli and Gansu Yinguang on the supply side.
The price of basic energy rose sharply, and the profit of petrochemical sector was under pressure. The production and sales volume of petrochemical sector were 118 / 3 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 36.70% / 27.66%. The average selling price was 6266 yuan / ton, up 22.09% year-on-year. At the raw material end, in the first quarter of 2022, the average price of propane CP was $803 / ton, up 35% year-on-year; The average price of butane CP was US $802 / ton, up 41% year-on-year. The increase of raw material price is larger than that of product price, and the profit of petrochemical sector in the first quarter is under pressure. Yantai Economic Development Zone publicized the social stability risk analysis report of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ethylene phase II project to the public. We believe that under the opinion that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control, Wanhua ethylene phase II is expected to accelerate.
The launch of new capacity is orderly, and the focus of the future is expected to continue to grow. In 2022, the company will continue to promote the construction of Yantai, Fujian and Sichuan Industrial Parks and start the Yantai Penglai Industrial Park project. According to the project construction schedule, polyether capacity expansion, PO / SM, PC upstream industrial chain, nylon 12 industrial chain, MMA, PMMA and other projects are planned to be put into operation. In the next 2-3 years, the main products to be put into operation will focus on new businesses and projects such as polyolefin modification, PC modification, nylon 12, citral and degradable plastics, and continue to promote the construction of battery industry chain.
Profit forecast: Based on the epidemic situation and MDI price changes, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 23.116 billion yuan, 26.962 billion yuan and 30.206 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 25.058 billion yuan, 28.580 billion yuan and 31.318 billion yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE will be 10.26/8.79/7.85x respectively, maintaining the “buy in” rating.
Risk warning: MDI price fluctuates greatly; The new capacity is less than expected.
