\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 383 Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 232 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.78%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.25%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.27%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.00%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 67 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.91%.
High performance, continued growth momentum and improved profitability.
(1) operation: Quarterly, in Q4 of 2021 and Q1 of 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was + 87.96% and + 84.00% respectively. The company’s high performance and continuous growth trend is mainly due to the company’s focus on the development main line of intelligent manufacturing equipment industry, continued to maintain its advantages in the industry, and the rapid development of mini led solid crystal machine, semiconductor solid crystal machine and other businesses.
(2) profitability: in 2021, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin were 42.63% and 19.34% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.35 and + 4.07pct respectively. The improvement of the company’s profitability is mainly due to the optimization of the company’s product revenue structure and the increase in the proportion of the revenue of mini led solid crystal machine and semiconductor solid crystal machine with high gross profit margin.
(3) period expenses: in 2021, the company’s sales, management, finance and R & D expense rates were 7.26%, 3.30%, 0.33% and 6.39% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.97pct, -0.01pct, -0.56pct and -0.61pct respectively. The increase of the company’s sales expense rate is mainly due to the increase of the salary, travel and business entertainment expenses of the corresponding sales personnel with the expansion of the company’s operating revenue, the recovery of the epidemic in 2021, the increase of the company’s export business volume, and the corresponding increase of intermediary service Commission, travel expenses and business entertainment expenses related to export business.
Mini led and semiconductor solid crystal machine are driven by two wheels, which promotes the rapid development of the company.
(1) the rapid development of mini LED has fully benefited the company’s LED crystal fixing machine. Mini LED has obvious advantages. Among them, the backlight display effect of mini LED is equivalent to that of OLED, and the cost is low. It is expected to meet rapid development in VR, pad, laptop and other fields; Mini led direct display has obvious advantages in large-size ultra-high definition display and has a rapid penetration in business display and other fields. Samsung, LG, TCL, Xiaomi, Huawei and other enterprises have successively launched Mini LED products. The continuous launch of terminal products promotes the rapid development of miniled industry. According to arizton’s prediction, the global Mini / micro LED market will exceed US $1 billion in 2022, with an average annual growth of more than 145%. The large volume of mini LED has led to the exponential growth of the number of LED beads, and the demand for solid crystal machine has increased significantly. The company is the leader of LED solid crystal machine, with strong competitiveness, and will fully benefit from the rapid development of miniled.
(2) the company’s solid crystal technology has expanded to the semiconductor field and ushered in rapid growth. In the post Moore era, the importance of packaging continues to increase, and the market scale of semiconductor packaging equipment is expected to grow gradually. As an important part of semiconductor packaging, the demand for solid crystal will grow steadily. According to yole development, the semiconductor solid crystal machine market is expected to reach US $1.083 billion in 2024. China’s semiconductor solid crystal equipment is highly dependent on imports, and most Chinese manufacturers use the equipment of foreign manufacturers asmpt and besi. The speed and performance of the company’s semiconductor solid crystal machine products have been recognized in the industry. Customers include crystal guide micro, canrui technology, Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) , Tongfu micro, solid technetium electronics, sub core micro and other well-known companies. With technological progress and continuous development of customers, the company’s semiconductor solid crystal machine will usher in rapid development.
(3) expand led and semiconductor wire bonding machines to create new growth points. The welding line belongs to the post process of crystal solidification, and there is a certain cooperation between customers and technology. There is a large market space for LED and semiconductor wire bonding machines, and there is a large space for import substitution. By acquiring kaijiu automation and expanding welding line equipment, the company will further open up the growth space of the company. According to the investor survey minutes disclosed by the company on November 17, 2021, kaijiu wire bonding machine is in the customer verification stage. The LED wire bonding machine is expected to be launched in the first half of 2022 and the semiconductor wire bonding machine is expected to be launched in the second half of 2022.
Profit forecast: the development of mini LED industry has brought an explosion of demand for solid crystal machines. The company has a leading advantage in the field of solid crystal machines, which is expected to bring great performance flexibility. The company’s semiconductor solid crystal machine has been recognized by the industry and is expected to usher in rapid development. At the same time, based on the technology accumulated in LED solid crystal machine, the company expands to LED and semiconductor wire bonding machine, which will further open the growth space of the company. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.593 billion yuan, 2.005 billion yuan and 2.548 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 305 million yuan, 422 million yuan and 557 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 22.6, 16.3 and 12.4 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the risk of repeated outbreaks leading to the decline of downstream demand; The risk of declining prosperity of LED packaging industry; The risk that the development of new markets is less than expected; The risk of product upgrading falling short of expectations.
