\u3000\u30003 Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000153) 00015)
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report: during the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 15.001 billion yuan (year-on-year + 25.93%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.323 billion yuan (year-on-year + 34.78%); Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.783 billion (year-on-year + 30.59%). 2) The first quarterly report of 2022 was released, and the revenue during the reporting period was 4.169 billion yuan (year-on-year + 18.72%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 611 million yuan (year-on-year + 26.15%); Deduct non net profit of 623 million yuan (year-on-year + 22.49%).
The annual performance slightly exceeded expectations, highlighting resilience under the disturbance of Q1 epidemic. In 2021, Q4 company achieved an operating revenue of 3.405 billion yuan (year-on-year + 1.7%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 320 million yuan (year-on-year + 79.9%); Deduct non net profit of 608 million yuan (year-on-year + 10.5%); It still performs well under the high base of 2020q4. Since March, due to the point-to-point outbreak of the epidemic in China, local prevention and control measures have also been tightened, which has a certain impact on the outpatient passenger flow. The company still performed well under the disturbance of the epidemic, and the revenue and net profit of 2022q1 increased by 18.7% and 26.2% respectively, highlighting the business toughness.
The cost side returned to normalization, and the profitability was stable and good. With the release of the company’s brand effect and the optimization of business structure, the profitability continues to improve. In 2021, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 51.9% (+ 0.9pp); The net interest rate is 15.5% (+ 1.0pp). In 2021, the hospital’s publicity and promotion activities returned to normal and equity incentive expenses were accrued. The overall cost side rebounded compared with 2020, with a sales expense rate of 9.7% (+ 0.7pp), an administrative expense rate of 14.5% (+ 1.2pp) and a financial expense rate of 0.7% (- 0.1pp). In 2022, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of Q1 decreased slightly. We expect that with the recovery of follow-up outpatient passenger flow, the profit will return to the normal level.
The number of outpatients exceeded 10 million, and the proportion of the top ten profits decreased to 36%. By the end of 2021, the company has 174 hospitals and 118 outpatient departments in China, and the hospital network layout is becoming more and more perfect. In 2021, the company’s outpatient volume was 101961 million (+ 35.07%); The number of operations was 817300 (+ 17.65%); Due to the acceleration of outpatient passenger flow, the passenger unit price decreased slightly in 2021 to 1471 yuan / person, a year-on-year decrease of 6.77% compared with 2020. The proportion of revenue of the top ten hospitals of the company decreased from 24.6% in 2020 to 21.7% in 2021, and the proportion of net profit decreased from 45.1% to 36.2%. In addition to the top ten, hospitals in other provincial capitals and secondary new hospitals have gradually become the backbone. The net interest rates of most mature hospitals are above 20%, which also reflects the high profitability of the company’s benchmark hospitals.
The optometry business maintained a high growth trend, and its proportion further increased. In terms of business segments, 1) refractive business: the revenue was 5.52 billion yuan (+ 26.92%), accounting for 37% of the total revenue, which remained stable; The gross profit margin is 59.0% (+ 0.8pp), which is mainly due to the growth of refractive surgery in prefectures and counties and the further increase of the proportion of high-end surgery. 2) Visual services: the revenue was 3.378 billion yuan (+ 37.68%), accounting for 22% of the total revenue; Gross profit margin 58.0% (+ 1.1pp); Vision business is an important growth engine of the company in recent years. We expect that with the accelerated layout of vision center, it will still be in a high growth channel. 3) Cataract business: revenue of 2.191 billion yuan, (+ 11.72%); Gross profit margin 37.7% (- 0.4pp); The cataract business is facing the challenges of the slowdown in the growth of surgery volume in the industry and the centralized collection of intraocular lenses. The company hedged these effects through high-end business transformation and maintained steady growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend driven by endogenous + epitaxial two wheels. However, considering the great uncertainty of the epidemic, we slightly adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 18.005 billion yuan, 22.109 billion yuan and 27.254 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, 23% and 23% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.939 billion yuan, 3.826 billion yuan and 4.924 billion yuan respectively (3.110 billion yuan and 4.055 billion yuan before adjustment in 202223), with a year-on-year increase of 27%, 30% and 29% respectively; The company’s leading position in ophthalmology is stable, its market share is expected to further improve, its performance is high, its growth is sustainable, and its “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning event: the risk that the integration of the underlying assets does not meet the expected risk, and the development of cataract, refraction, optometry and other business markets is less than the expected risk.
