\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Event:
On the evening of April 25, 2022, the company released the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of January 22 years:
In 2021, the total operating revenue was 2.594 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 34.66%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 666 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 24.38%).
21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 680 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 12.97%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 103 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 32.41%).
22q1 achieved a total operating income of 539 million yuan (a year-on-year increase of 4.14%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 92 million yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 29.94%).
Performance review:
The slowdown in revenue growth in the second half of the year dragged down the annual performance. The growth rate of the company's revenue in Q1 and Q1 was slightly lower than our forecast of RMB 1.34 billion, and the growth rate of the company's total revenue in Q1 and Q1 was 2.54%, which was slightly lower than our previous forecast of RMB 1.34 billion, especially the growth rate of the company's revenue in Q1 and Q1, which was 2.54% and 5.4% respectively. In terms of splitting, the company's 21-year pre blending business revenue was 2.285 billion yuan, slightly lower than our forecast value of 7.8%. Among them, the sales volume was 249858 million boxes, a year-on-year increase of 38.2%, which was significantly slower than the growth rate of 56.44% in the semi annual report and 6.5% lower than the predicted value; The sales unit price is 91.47 yuan / box, slightly lower than the predicted value of 1.4%. In the same period, the spice essence business income was 273million yuan, basically in line with expectations. 22q1 revenue growth further slowed to 4.14%, mainly due to covid-19 epidemic prevention and control policy and the company's limited supply of raw materials, production and logistics, which had a great phased impact on the pre blending business.
The increase in sales expenses further weakened the company's current performance. In the 21st year, the company's sales expense was 567 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.42%, which changed the previous trend of annual reduction of sales expense since 2016. The main variable is that the company invested 183 million yuan of sales expenses in 21q4. While the growth rate of revenue in the current period decreased, the sales expenses increased by 122% year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 2.18 PCT and a month on month decrease of 3.75 PCT. 22q1 sales expense was 138 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.62%, much higher than the current revenue growth rate (4.14%).
The sales expenses in the 21st year were mainly composed of labor expenses (accounting for 39.4% in the 21st year, the same below), advertising activities expenses (accounting for 47.9%) and other expenses (accounting for 9.6%), of which the labor expenses and advertising activities expenses increased by 25.7% / 25.8% respectively year-on-year, slightly lower than the revenue growth rate of the company in the same period, but other expenses increased by 232% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in expenses caused by the growth of online channel business.
Online promotions drive down the company's overall gross profit margin. The company's products are divided into three channels: offline, online (Digital retail) and ready to drink, including:
The annual revenue of online channels is 1.814 billion yuan, accounting for about 71% of the total revenue. It is the cornerstone of the company's performance. The gross profit margin increased by 2.03 PCT year-on-year, which plays a supporting role in the company's gross profit margin.
However, the gross profit margin of online channels decreased by 2.78 PCT year-on-year, accounting for 25% of the company's revenue, which has a certain proportion, thus lowering the overall performance level of the company.
Although the gross profit margin of ready to drink channels decreased by 4.41pct year-on-year, it accounted for only about 4% of the company's revenue, which had a weak impact.
The essence business is still sound and good, and has become a ballast for the company. In the year of 21, the income of edible essence products reached 273million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.72%, and its proportion in the revenue increased by 0.24pct to 10.54%. The gross profit rate of edible essence decreased slightly from 1.07pct to 65.2%, which has been relatively stable in recent years; The business contributed a gross profit of 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.52%.
Channel sinking further force. In the 21st year, the number of dealers of the company further increased to 1888, with a year-on-year increase of 19.65%, of which the force in East China was the strongest. The number of dealers increased by 31% to 514, and the proportion in all regions of the country increased by 2.4pct to 27.2%.
The production and sales are balanced, and the inventory remains low. In 21 years, the sales volume / production volume of the company's pre mixed liquor was 249925.31 million boxes, with a production and sales rate of 98.74%; the sales volume / production volume of edible essence was 285/2.92 million boxes, with a production and sales rate of 97.75%. Are in tight equilibrium. At the end of the year, compared with the beginning of the year, the inventory / sales of the company's pre mixed liquor and edible essence were adjusted from 6.59%/2.9% to 5.86%/3.98% respectively, maintaining a low level and healthy inventory.
Contract liabilities and sales cash flow declined, and the current epidemic still suppressed performance. Since 21q2, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's contract liabilities has remained negative, and the year-on-year growth rate of cash flow received from selling goods and providing labor services has declined quarter by quarter. Therefore, the support of revenue growth in 22q2 is weak; In April, the company's main market in East China was affected by covid-19 epidemic, and commodity logistics and residents' consumption were restrained due to relevant epidemic prevention policies. We tend to be more cautious about the company's 22q2 performance.
The short-term impact does not change the long-term logic and is optimistic about the long-term development potential of the company in the future. The penetration rate of the company's main product premixed cocktails in China still has great room for improvement; The leading position of the company in the pre blending industry is stable, and the competition pattern has not changed; The pre blending industry is still in the initial stage of development in China and has great prospects. From the perspective of specific products: "slightly drunk" as a large single product has consolidated the basic sector of the company's pre blending business; As a brand-new sub brand, "Qingxin" becomes the third largest selling item of the company when it is listed; The sales volume of "qiangshuang" products doubled in the 21st year, consolidating the company's market share among people with drinking habits and expanding the consumption scene; On the basis of conforming to the healthy reduction of sugar, the taste of "Congjian" and other reserve new products has been unanimously praised by our grassroots research, enriching the reserve force of the product matrix.
We believe that although the performance of 21 and 22q1 released by the company is weak, the current price has fully responded to the short-term performance decline, but it underestimates the intrinsic value of the company. Corresponding to the adjustment of the valuation model, we lowered the 22-year net profit attributable to the parent company to 1.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51.5%. Assuming that the growth rate of pre mixed liquor sales in 22 years further slows down to 30% (29%, 43% and 38% respectively in 19-21 years), the predicted single box price is 96.3 yuan (5.28% higher than the unit price in 21 years, in line with the adjustment of the company's price increase of 4-10% at the end of 21 years), and the predicted single box cost is unchanged compared with 21 years (the single box cost in 19-21 years is 31.71 yuan, 32.79 yuan and 31.24 yuan respectively). It is predicted that the business of essence and fragrances will only increase by 2% compared with that in the past 21 years. Other conditions have not changed significantly compared with before. Accordingly, it is predicted that the company will realize a revenue of 3.407 billion yuan in 22 years, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.009 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.5%. At the current time point, we believe that the decline of the market has created an opportunity for us to buy excellent companies. The short-term performance changes have been reflected in the valuation and will not affect the long-term investment value of the company.
Investment suggestion: Based on the above analysis, we believe that although there is still some pressure on the company's performance in the second quarter of 22 years, it is good in the long term, and the current price overestimates the short-term impact and underestimates the long-term fundamental advantages. Adjust the company's profit forecast accordingly: adjust the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to 1.009 billion yuan, 1.225 billion yuan and 1.348 billion yuan respectively, EPS to 1.34 yuan, 1.63 yuan and 1.79 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE to 24.05 times, 19.81 times and 18.01 times respectively. According to the predicted performance in 2022, 35 times of reasonable PE is given, and the rating is raised to "buy", with the target price of 46.9 yuan.
Risk tips: food safety risks; The epidemic situation and secondary impact have further expanded; Industry competition intensifies.
