\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 989 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In Q1 of 22 years, the operating revenue was 6.514 billion yuan, yoy + 30.83%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 1.746 billion yuan, yoy + 1.07%, and the deduction of non net profit was 1.886 billion yuan, yoy + 4.82%.
The company is a leading olefin enterprise in China, with obvious cost advantages and leading technical level. It also arranges the hydrogen energy industry in advance. In the future, it will move towards a higher quality green development road and give a “buy” rating.
The price of main products rose, driving the growth of the company’s revenue: the growth of the company’s revenue in 21 years mainly benefited from
The price of the company’s main products rose. In Q1 of the year of 22, the average ex factory prices of the company’s main products polyethylene, polypropylene, coke, pure benzene, modified asphalt and MTBE were 767728, 748876225811653924520886631700 yuan / ton, yoy respectively + 8.44% / – 0.34% + 31.54% / + 50.61% / + 69.95% / + 41.86%. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of polyethylene, polypropylene, coke, pure benzene, modified asphalt and MTBE of Q1 company in 22 years were 18.32/15.98/114.67/2.04/1.9424800 tons respectively, yoy respectively -0.82% / + 22.92% / + 11.56% / – 2.06% / – 27.08% / + 3.54%. Affected by the epidemic, the sales volume of polyethylene, pure benzene and modified coal asphalt decreased, affecting the company’s performance.
The rise of raw material prices affected the gross profit, and the effect of cost control was significant: during the reporting period, the company’s gross profit margin fell 12.44pct to 38.97% year-on-year, mainly due to the upward impact of raw material prices. In 2021q1, the average purchase price of gasification raw coal, coking refined coal, power coal, coal tar and crude benzene of the company’s main raw materials is 677.99164423/495.15402318513697 yuan / ton, yoy respectively + 48.18% / 128.34% / 60.26% / 68.76% / 69.56%. In terms of expenses, the company’s expense rate decreased year-on-year. The R & D expense rate decreased by 0.14 PCT year-on-year to 0.35%, the sales expense rate decreased by 2.35 PCT year-on-year to 0.30%, the management expense rate decreased by 0.09 PCT year-on-year to 2.41%, and the financial expense rate decreased by 1.12 PCT year-on-year to 0.90%.
There are abundant projects under construction, and the integrated layout deepens the cost moat: the company has arranged in advance, and there are abundant projects under construction. The subsequent 3 million T / a coal coking polygeneration project is expected to release production capacity this year; The 500000 T / a coal to olefin and 500000 T / a C2-C5 comprehensive utilization to olefin projects in Ningdong phase III are progressing steadily, including 250000 T / a EVA unit. The methanol and olefin project is planned to be completed by the end of 2022, and the EVA unit will be completed and put into operation in 2023. Ningdong phase IV also plans to produce 250000 t EVA energy; Inner Mongolia 4 × The 1 million T / a coal to olefin demonstration project is accelerating the EIA approval, and the construction is expected to be completed in 2023. The integration of the company’s industrial chain has been further strengthened, and the cost advantage has become more and more obvious.
Increase investment in hydrogen energy to ensure long-term growth: the company has arranged the hydrogen energy industry in advance, and the national Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) electrolytic hydrogen production, energy storage and application demonstration project has been completed. The 240 million standard cubic meters of “green hydrogen” and 120 million standard cubic meters of “green oxygen” produced by the project will be directly supplied to chemical plants to replace raw coal and fuel coal for hydrogen and oxygen production. It can increase and reduce the consumption of coal resources by about 380000 tons, increase and reduce the carbon dioxide emission by about 660000 tons, and increase and reduce the total carbon emission of chemical plants by 5%. In addition, the company also plans to put 30-40 electrolytic cell hydrogen production equipment into operation every year from 2022, with an annual green hydrogen output of about 300 million m3. Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the long-term value of the company will be further improved.
Profit forecast: taking into account the impact of the epidemic and revising the company’s performance, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 7.9/103/13.3 billion yuan, yoy + 11% / + 30% + 30%, equivalent to EPS of 1.07/1.40/1.81 yuan in 2022 / 2023 / 2024. At present, the PE corresponding to the A-share price is 12 / 9 / 7 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The product price is lower than expected; 2. The production of new projects is not as expected
