\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 58 Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) )
Matters:
Company announcement: in 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 365 million yuan, an increase of 7.51% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan, an increase of 13.42% at the same time. The revenue of 21q1 was 86 million yuan, an increase of 6.63% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23 million yuan, an increase of 8.75% at the same time. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
The business of edible probiotics increased by 128.46%. In terms of business segments, the revenue of compound food additives, edible probiotic products and animal and plant probiotics accounted for 65.51% / 20.46% / 12.22% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.82% / 128.63% / 25.74%. Although the traditional compounding business has shrunk, the company’s edible probiotic business has performed well, with a growth rate of more than 100% for several consecutive years. For the first time in 21 years, its revenue has exceeded that of animal and plant probiotics, and has become the second largest business segment of the company. According to the company’s annual report, the total revenue of edible probiotics and animal and plant probiotics is expected to account for more than 50% in 2022, and within 2-3 years, the single edible probiotics business is expected to surpass the compound business and become the business with the highest proportion of the company.
It is expected to achieve full production in 2022: the company’s new edible probiotic products factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang has been fully put into operation in 2021, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 50% in that year. It is expected to achieve full production in 2022.
Fixed increase and production expansion: the company also announced the fixed increase plan, which plans to raise 700 million yuan, of which sun Tiansong, the actual controller, plans to subscribe 50 million yuan. The fixed raising and investment project is mainly the R & D and production base of the food sector. After the completion of the project, the annual production capacity of 10000 tons of food ingredients, 400 tons of probiotic raw material bacterial powder, 100 tons of yogurt starter, 600 tons of epigenetic yuan and 1200 tons of probiotic end consumer goods can be realized. If it can be completed on schedule, the company’s production capacity of edible probiotics is expected to expand more than 10 times on the current basis.
The company continued to increase the research and development of probiotics, increased technical investment and product endorsement: in the past 21 years, the company systematically carried out 34 R & D projects, added 1 international invention patent authorization and 14 Chinese invention patents authorization; At the same time, the research results of relevant clinical and population trials of the company’s star strains Zhang and B. lactis probio-m8 have been published in international authoritative journals to enhance product endorsement.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company is a leader in China’s Probiotic industry, deeply ploughing the research and development of probiotic strains, and the business of edible probiotics continues to increase. We predict that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 444 million yuan (the former value is 453 million yuan), 547 million yuan (the former value is 544 million yuan) and 673 million yuan (New), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 135 million yuan (the former value is 141 million yuan), 177 million yuan (the former value is 169 million yuan) and 220 million yuan (New), with EPS of 91 million yuan, 119 million yuan and 148 yuan, corresponding to 27.2 times, 20.7 times and 16.7 times of the current share price respectively. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) business contraction risk of existing customers; 2) Risk of increased competition; 3) Key customer concentration risk; 4) Risk of recurrent outbreaks; 5) Food safety risks.
