\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 438 Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 63.491 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.64%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 127.50%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 721.92%; It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 0.912 yuan per share (including tax). The company also released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 24.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132.49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 5.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 513.01% and a month-on-month increase of 129.52%.
The sales volume and price of silicon materials rose simultaneously, and the shipment of battery chips remained the first in the industry. In 2021, the company’s silicon material sales increased by 24.36% year-on-year to 107700 tons, maintaining the first in the world. The average sales price (including tax) was about 180000 yuan / ton. The simultaneous rise of silicon material sales price led to the company’s high-purity crystalline silicon and chemical sector operating revenue of + 186.89% to 18.761 billion yuan year-on-year, and the gross profit margin increased significantly by 32 PCT to 66.69% year-on-year; The sales of battery chips increased by 51.19% year-on-year to 31.25gw, ranking first in the world. The operating revenue of battery and component sector increased by + 60.87% year-on-year to 24.935 billion yuan. However, subject to the cost pressure of rising raw material prices, the gross profit margin decreased by 5.73 PCT to 8.81% year-on-year.
The silicon material sales of 2022q1 company exceeded 40000 tons, the average sales price (including tax) exceeded 240000 yuan / ton, and the sales volume of battery chips was about 10GW, which basically achieved full production and full sales, promoting the high growth of the company’s performance in 2022q1.
The price of silicon material will remain high in 2022, and the cost and capital advantages ensure the company’s silicon material capacity expansion plan. Under the background that the capacity release of silicon material is less than expected and the capacity release progress of downstream silicon wafer is accelerated, the situation of silicon material in short supply continues, and the price of silicon material has increased for 14 consecutive weeks. It is expected that the price of silicon material will still have strong support in may, and the tension between supply and demand in June is expected to be eased periodically. We expect that the average sales price of silicon material in the whole year is expected to remain at a high level of 200 yuan / kg. Baotou phase II (50000 tons) is expected to be put into operation in 2022q3, and Leshan phase III (120000 tons) is expected to be put into operation in 2023q3. By 2023, the company’s silicon material capacity will reach 350000 tons. The company has a leading production cost (3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 yuan / ton) and abundant cash on hand (the balance of cash and cash equivalents at the end of 2022q1 is 10.7 billion yuan). The above two advantages will support the company’s long-term plan to realize 800000 tons of silicon production capacity in 2026.
The production capacity of battery cells continues to expand, and the cost control and technical reserve industry are leading. (1) On the capacity side, the company’s battery capacity will reach 70gw by the end of 2022. After Meishan 32gw high-efficiency battery project is put into operation, the capacity will reach 102gw. The planned battery capacity will further reach 130gw in 2026. (2) On the cost side, the company’s cost advantage continues. In 2021, the average non silicon cost of p-type products has been reduced to less than 0.18 yuan / W, keeping the industry leading. (3) On the technical side, the company has built the industry’s first GW level hjt production line in 21 years, and successfully put into operation 1gwtopcon production line. The joint research and development of the two technical routes is conducive to maintaining the company’s leading edge in battery technology.
Maintain the “buy” rating: it is expected that the price of silicon material will remain high in 2022h1, and the supply and demand situation of silicon material is still relatively tight under the background of high demand boom. We slightly raised the profit forecast for 22 / 23 years and introduced the profit forecast for 24 years. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 18.287203.46/19.556 billion yuan in 22-24 years (up 3% / up 3% / new), corresponding to EPS 4.5 billion yuan 06 / 4.52/4.34 yuan, the current share price corresponds to 9 / 8 / 8 times of PE in 22-24 years. As the absolute leader of silicon materials, the company leads the industry in the pace of production expansion, the market share will be further improved in the future, and the layout of large-size batteries / modules is also expected to bring additional increment to the company’s profit and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The company’s production capacity and product sales are lower than expected; The intensity of overcapacity price war is higher than expected; The company’s technical route is wrong or capacity expansion cannot keep up with the trend.
