\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 598 Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) )
Event: in 2022q1, the company’s revenue was 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 162.5%.
The performance of 2022q1 is in line with the expectation, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is in the median of the notice: the revenue of Jinbo in 2022q1 is 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.8% and a month on month increase of + 0.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 203 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 162.5% and a month on month increase of + 21.6%, which was in the median of the performance forecast; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 137 million yuan, up + 83.9% year on year and – 9.9% month on month. We expect that the net profit excluding the impact of share based payment expenses and convertible bond interest is about 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 116% and a month on month increase of – 9%. We expect that the shipment volume of Q1 is about 589 tons, and the corresponding single ton selling price is about 760000 yuan, which is in line with the expectation. Excluding the impact of share payment expenses and convertible bond interest, the net profit deducted from non attributable parent company corresponds to 290000 yuan per ton.
Affected by the rising price of carbon fiber, the gross profit margin declined and the operating net profit margin remained high (38%): in 2022q1, Jinbo’s gross profit margin was 53.4%, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.1pct and a month-on-month increase of – 2.2pct, mainly due to the high price of raw material carbon fiber. At present, domestic carbon fiber is still at the high level of 220 yuan / kg. With the release of carbon fiber capacity, we expect it to drop to about 150 yuan / kg in 2023. At the same time, Jinbo through technological innovation, It is expected to further improve the utilization rate of carbon fiber (thermal field: carbon fiber is expected to gradually increase from the current 1:0.8 to 1:0.5), and the double control of raw material volume and price is expected to promote Jinbo to maintain high gross profit in the process of transferring profits to customers.
The net interest rate of Jinbo in 2022q1 was 45%, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.2pct and a month on month increase of + 7.9pct; The net interest rate after deducting non attributable assets was 30.4%, with a year-on-year ratio of -6.8pct and a month on month ratio of -3.4pct. Non recurring profits and losses were mainly government subsidies. During 2022q1, the expense rate was relatively stable, 15.6%, year-on-year -0.8pct, of which the sales expense rate was 3.1%, year-on-year -0.9pct; The management expense ratio (including R & D) was 11.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.5pct; The financial expense rate was 1.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.7pct.
In 2022q1, excluding the impact of share based payment and convertible bond interest, the non net interest rate was 38%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2pct and a month on month increase of – 4pct, which remained high, mainly due to the scale effect and the company’s continuous technical cost reduction. Under the medium and long-term steady-state conditions, we expect the gross profit margin of Jinbo to remain above 50% and the operating net profit margin to be stable at 30-35%, mainly due to the following advantages: (1) we judge that the single ton price of Jinbo as the industry leader is 5% – 10% higher than that of the industry; (2) Jinbo has scale advantages. We expect the production capacity to reach 3450 tons in 2023h1; (3) In the past, the cost reduction of Jinbo mainly focused on shortening the deposition cycle, and in the future, the cost reduction mainly focused on improving the utilization rate of carbon fiber. We think there is still room for obvious decline in its cost.
Inventory continued to increase, and net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly: by the end of 2022q1, the company’s inventory was 190 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98%; Contract liabilities were RMB 05 million, a year-on-year increase of – 83%; Accounts receivable amounted to 510 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 259%. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was 160 million yuan, an increase compared with – 30 million yuan in 21q1, and the payment collection was in good condition.
In the future, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) main strategy is to pursue the increase of share, reduce the cost of technology and maintain high profitability: the market is worried that the supply of thermal field exceeds the demand, but we believe that with the lifting of silicon supply constraints in the second half of 2022, the downstream production rate will gradually rise. It is expected that the demand of CC thermal field will be 7 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 tons in 2022, and the industry will be in a balance between supply and demand. The logic of continuously reducing costs and increasing efficiency through technological progress in the photovoltaic industry is significantly reflected in the thermal field industry. Due to technological cost reduction, the gross profit margin of Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) 20182020 has been maintained at more than 60%. We expect that the gold Expo will continue to guide the cost reduction of the industrial chain (in the past, the cost reduction focused on shortening the deposition cycle, and in the future, the cost reduction focused on improving the utilization rate of carbon fiber). We expect that the price per ton in 2022 will be about 7 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 50000 yuan, and the profit per ton will be 25 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 yuan.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) in the short term, the capacity of photovoltaic thermal field is released. In the long term, it is a platform enterprise of high-purity materials. We maintain the parent net profit of 708 / 898 / 1168 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the current share price corresponds to 21 / 16 / 13 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the competition in photovoltaic industry intensifies, and the R & D progress is less than expected.
